Quote from: windjc on March 30, 2014, 09:04:00 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 30, 2014, 08:54:59 AM

It bugs me that I was too early with the final capitulation last week. Now all the signs are the more prevalent. Hitting a low repeatedly in subsequent days without one massive flashcrash with massive volume was a typical for the last one. (Cf. now).

The bottom was 62% of the last stable level (note: fibonacci ratio). If the stability level this time is 640, the bottom would be seen at about 400. Indeed, next week of oscillation full of fear between 400-480 would be perfect for shaking out every single remaining weak hand and pave the way for continued gains (last time chart shown for reference Grin

):
1 month = +50%
2 months = +100%
3 months = +100%
4 months = +400%
5 months = +1000%.

Ah, but everywhere you look (1) the prognosticators are saying down down down. (2) A breach if 380 sends us into a death spiral they say. (3) Bid sums drying up. (4) Everyone taking their money off exchanges. (5) China drying up. (6) No new fiat, no new excitement as mainstream investors already know about Bitcoin.

(7) No good news reactions only bad new reactions are a clear symptom of this they say. (8 ) This could go on indefinitely they say.

Are they correct?

(1) This is one requirement for a bottom, similarly as everybody saying "up" is a prerequisite for a top.
(2) I have developed a wonderful proof that this is not true, but sadly my time does not allow to elucidate.
(3) Actually it seems that ask sum is drying up and there is very much (15k) bids in 400-470. Anyway these are easily manipulated.
(4) As well as their coins. This is typical for a bottom.
(5) I don't believe there is any additional "drying up" left in China. If someone wants out, he is already out. If someone wants Bitcoin, he is in.
(6) It takes 12-24 months on average from hearing to acting. That's why the upside will be so explosive (like 2013/1-4 as a result of 2011)
(7) Yes, in the bottom the news reactions are bad no matter what happens.
(8 ) Every day we go lower, there has to be new sellers selling a growing number of coins to satisfy even stagnant demand. I would not bet it happening indefinitely.