Quote from: chessnut on March 30, 2014, 09:18:43 AM

Quote from: windjc on March 30, 2014, 09:04:00 AM

Quote from: rpietila on March 30, 2014, 08:54:59 AM

It bugs me that I was too early with the final capitulation last week. Now all the signs are the more prevalent. Hitting a low repeatedly in subsequent days without one massive flashcrash with massive volume was a typical for the last one. (Cf. now).

The bottom was 62% of the last stable level (note: fibonacci ratio). If the stability level this time is 640, the bottom would be seen at about 400. Indeed, next week of oscillation full of fear between 400-480 would be perfect for shaking out every single remaining weak hand and pave the way for continued gains (last time chart shown for reference Grin

):
1 month = +50%
2 months = +100%
3 months = +100%
4 months = +400%
5 months = +1000%.

Ah, but everywhere you look the prognosticators are saying down down down. A breach if 380 sends us into a death spiral they say. Bid sums drying up. Everyone taking their money off exchanges. China drying up. No new fiat, no new excitement as mainstream investors already know about Bitcoin.

No good news reactions only bad new reactions are a clear symptom of this they say. This could go on indefinitely they say.

Are they correct?

well I believe thats all very bullish. when everybody feels ripped off by their bad fortunes - blame the market and blame the news. bearish sentiment.
a death spiral is a slippery slope argument. not gonna happen, whales like to intercept large sell offs, it's much easier than accumulating.

Have bid sums fallen dramatically prior to past bottoms?