Quote from: T.Stuart on March 30, 2014, 08:39:46 PM

Quote from: hailtopitt on March 30, 2014, 08:07:05 PM

Quote from: Zule on March 30, 2014, 07:57:22 PM

Quote from: hailtopitt on March 30, 2014, 07:54:13 PM

I'm desperate for bitcoin to go back up. I stand to lose everything. When do you think we see bitcoin climb steadily? It's been on the decline for months now. HELP

I know whats gonna happend, but I thnk its better not to tell you, you might try something

You think it's going to zero huh?

Unless the Bitcoin protocol is totally and utterly destroyed by some ridiculously improbable act of God and all the devs mysteriously perish, Bitcoin will not go to zero now.

Hell, I don't even think it is going to go any lower than this really. Just look at what happened last year. Very close to the same pattern. Nothing fundamental has changed at all; we're still in the same pattern of adoption, hype cycles, disasters, etc.

The bubbles, pops, ups, downs... it's natural market movement and not controlled by any one entity. This might sound foolhardy but to me it's like watching a POT plant grow, in the greenhouse without any major diseases etc. This is just my opinion but don't worry.

ftfy

Just because something is banned in another country or even this does not mean it will go away, just like the greenhouse (controversial political subject but there are many parallels), someone has invested a lot of money, a LOT of money, to ensuring that the greenhouse is built solid, that the water, nutrient and light systems are going to work to the best efficiency in order to ensure that there will be a good harvest, eg Mining Hardware and the money spent to build then buy the miners and build an environment to maximize BTC returns in small or large operations, racks, power, cooling, DC expenses, etc.

Then lots of other people spend a lot of money on lobbying, licenses, permits, safe supply chain, etc, to build the infrastructure to legally distribute the product (in the decriminalized states) and in the areas that have not decriminalized just leaves that potential extra greatly needed extra tax income to large criminal enterprises who also have invested lots of money they just don't have to pay the tax man and as we have all seen hurts the general population more than it helps. So this is the same with the exchanges following all the FINCEN rules and spending all the money to get the MTL in EVERY State in the US, not cheap or easy I would imagine. All those venture capitalists and angel investors are not going to just let their multi-million dollar investments just go away.

So, if China bans BTC through banks and exchanges in China who would most likely end up paying "the state" the taxes and licensing fees then the business would just go elsewhere, perhaps Hong Kong or Singapore or any "nearby" Asian countries that are Bitcoin "Friendly" and the people follow. For those that know, many Chinese people enjoy gambling, rich or poor, legal or not, they do it... the Chinese have been "organized" as a country for 5000+ years(?), longer if the time before the Emperors "united" all the villages and what not and set up a centralized system is counted. In any case, through out that time, the Chinese has had a good grasp on monetary transactions and systems while the "west" was still worried about falling off the edge of the world and still traded goats for wives. There just based on the population there were/are many "wales" through out that history that would "invest" or "gamble", it is practically part of the culture. Just look at the all the casinos over there, they are so crowded that you can't even get a seat most of the time, many people just "side bet" on whoever is already there.

In any case, there are most likely many "wales" or children of them that grew up in the "tech" era and understand Bitcoins and the great potential it has, just because the "old" regime and regulators are scared of it does not mean that they will be able to squash it. Look at the internet, the "Great Firewall of China" has largely has failed. Soon the old generation will "retire" and the new will continue to take control.

Another example of China's ability to "control" the increasingly capitalistic industry is all the tonnes of "grey market" drugs and even straight up black market drugs that are openly advertised and shipped all over the world. They will sell kilos at $3k to anyone who would wire the money and the "government" doesn't stop this, obviously these things are made in huge chemical factories and many people are making a lot of money. I'm pretty sure there are many many palms greased to continue to allow this, the industry is growing so much that they are even creating novel compounds instead of just manufacturing existing ones. Where there is a demand there will be a supply.

I think that there are many "tech savvy" wales that are quietly buying Bitcoins so that they can "store" their wealth in a relatively anonymous way and even would be able to still cash it out relatively quietly, I'm sure there are many "off exchange" trades that happen, especially when US customs forces anyone who carries over 10k in cash into the country to declare the money. So what better way than to get Bitcoin, have some relative, friend, other, convert it into cash for them? No need to "declare" anything when coming here... I would even go as far to say that one day Casinos will accept bitcoins, quietly, from the "wales" as payment.

So with all the millions perhaps even getting close to a billion in just funds that are just "spent" on the Bitcoin infrastructure that will never show on the BTC Market Cap, that it would have to be some pretty horrid catastrophic event to have Bitcoin go away, what happened after SR went away? BTC went UP!

Anyway, back to the "greenhouse" just because perhaps the market is saturated because you choose to plant and harvest on the wrong time schedule does not mean that demand or structure has gone away. Just like fruits are cheaper when they are "in season" so is BTC, at least until the structure is completely built out, just the same as when we can import fruits from the other side of the world in the "off season" and have it be almost as cheap as when they are in season, once the structure and demand is there things will just go up. IMHO