Quote from: be.open on Today at 09:37:54 AM

Quote from: paxmao on Today at 09:30:56 AM

I really hope Putin's plan is not an "unconditional surrender"..

The Ukrainian government demonstrates complete inability to negotiate, therefore, a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine will be concluded on the terms of the unconditional surrender of Ukraine. But not before the complete liberation of Donbass and the establishment of Russian control over the South of Ukraine (Odessa, Nikolaev, etc.) up to the border with Transnistria. I think Ukraine will lose access to the Black Sea as a result of this operation. The South of Ukraine is not quite Donbass - but in such cases it is sometimes difficult to stop. Grin

ps Gonzalo Lira is alive.

Good for him.

You seem determined to win the war by slamming your keyboard instead of understanding how they are actually won. Of all the things that are needed to wage war, Putin's got just a few, but is lacking many. Of the things that are needed to win a war, Ukraine is missing some - but are the ones that can actually be changed:

- More and better fighting means.
- Financing.
- More humanitarian and civil supplies.

However what Putin's psychos are missing are the ones that are more difficult to replace:

- Diplomacy & international support - spectacular fail, broken for decades.
- Soldiers that believe in what they are doing - spectacular fail, some did not even know where in Ukraine. Many feel they are attacking their own people, others are looting and raping with shows dire indiscipline and lack of command.
- Intelligence advantage: Troops movements are even public OSINT. The intelligence feed from drones is obvious, the military satellites are working full-time, planning and strategy count with seasoned professionals.
- Communications - disastrous, communications are not even encrypted. You could as well send geoloc selfies to Ukrainian artillery.
- Supply lines - disastrous to the point of having to retreat from Kiev.
- Excellent leadership (on this, Putin decided on one psycho instead of many now. It only took 15.000 dead and still is far from perfect).
- Proper weapons. Russian army is about numbers: More jets, more tanks, more guns,... But then a 26000 USD NLAW kills a 2M USD tank, a drone kills a 20M USD command centre and your jets get killed by a 80K MANPAD.

All this makes the troops cannon fodder and they notice it. That is exactly what caused the Menshevik revolution that removed the Romanov Tzar and Putin should know.

Now, Putin's psychos do understand this and they have change the "scope" of the war:

- From removing the government and installing a Kremlin puppet.
- From denying Ukraine access to the sea, to keeping the Azov and the strip to Crimea.
- From full scale invasion, to taking as much of the Donbas as possible.

Depending on the "achievements" the negotiating table will be different, but as of now, it is clear even for even the most convinced Putin apologist, "surrender" will not ever be on the table.