Quote from: franky1 on April 23, 2022, 11:47:40 PM

Quote from: ariinv on April 22, 2022, 05:22:29 PM

Forget all indicators , sentimental and fundamental discussion! Did any one calculate the theoretical value of BTC and identify its variance from the actual price?

values (note the s) is the features and benefits.
value(no s) is the financial number

anyway value, based on how i view it. and it has worked well for me over the years to view the value window which the bitcoin price sits within at any given time

network hashrate   203,000,000thash
hashrate/asic unit   140   thash
hardware cost/unit   $11,620

asics running      1,450,000
hardware cost 2 year   $16,849,000,000
hardware cost /block   $160,467
hardware cost /coin   $25,675

hardware kw/unit   3.01   kw
hardware kw network   4,364,500   kw

cheapest asic power cost per kwh $0.04
cheapest network power cost per hour   $174,580.00
cheapest network power per block   $29,096.67
cheapest network power per coin   $4,655.47
lowest 'value'   $30,330.13 (hardware+power cost per btc $25,675+$4,655.47)

expensive asic power cost per kwh $0.38
expensive network power cost per hour   $1,658,510.00
expensive mine power/block   $276,418.33
expensive mine power/coin   $44,226.93
highest value   $69,901.60 (hardware+power cost per btc 25,675+$44,226.93)

thus value window is between $30k-$70k
and no its not a coincidence that while hashrate has been in this range that the price has been bouncing between $30k-$70k

no one on the planet can mine for less than $30k. hense good buy support at $30k because no one wants to sell at a loss, as no one can profit at below $30k

everyone on the planet can mine for less than $70k. hense good sell resistance at $70k because no one wants to buy at premium, as everyone can mine for less than $70k

6 months ago, previous asics were ~50% less efficient and the hashrate was ~50% less(balancing out). thus the window was about the same back then too

Between all comments that I got , I agree with you more than anyone else , but there are still countries may hire cheaper electricity !