Quote from: zhangweiwu on March 31, 2014, 08:22:03 AM

Quote from: windjc on March 31, 2014, 08:07:03 AM

In you opinion, why have we not heard from Houbi, OkCoin or BtcChina?

Thanks for asking, I was afraid someone would ask this, 'cause that forces me to speculate, which I should but loath to do. No, I don't really know why we are not hearing from these big exchanges.

My speculation is outlandish to western readers, so first I'd suggest a read of my previous post, to grasp the culture background:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397614.0

I'd suggest a full reading. Here is the highlight:

Quote

A short culture background info on loyalty vs regulation:

Regulation = if you go aginst the rule, you will be punished. Undersand the intention of the rule. You are rewarded by wining the game following the rule.
Loyalty = I can punsih you any time, from a database of regulations, or without any regulation (like how Apple is punished). Understand the intention of the ruler. I will reward you. ("I" is the governer)

It happened more than once, in the past, that a lot of regulations or a very strict one makes it effectively impossible to do business in the industry. This incriminates the whole industry. The government could then, selectively pursue those who are not loyal, and your survival is back on the track - depending on your loyalty.

So picture this: The officials in charge arranges exchanges to talk, and all they demand for from the CEOs, is not that they promise to follow a certain reggulation, but that they are loyal, willing to obey. If CEOs are obiedient, let them run the business as usual and when anything is wrong, know the CEOs are looking for a chance to pay back, and a communication channel is already established to coordinate any future activities. You only want to make sure CEOs fear you and know to talk in line with medias, and ready to obey. Then you let them live for another while, see if you like the result.

If this speculation is true, Bitcoin will be allowed to live for another 3 months in China. The other possibility being pure sluggish excution.

--

If you think this is crazy talk, check the other crazy talk I made and how it came to be reality:
My post: "What will the China government do to bitcoin?" made on 9th Jan 2014.

Quote from: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=406637

Short answer: it will not declare a war against bitcoin but cripple bitcoin operations in China.

(snip -- please take time to read the original)

So when will the government make a new decision? It probably is made. Recent news towards bitcoin are hasherer and hasher, as 5th Dec ban interpreated each time stricter than before. This often happen when a higher leader makes a different decision. I am not sure if it is easy to understand for western audience, so I will go through the trouble this time and explain with an mini drama I just improvised:

Quote

Improvised mini-drama

Officer: You can take the poverty data for your study, once you have a result, let us know, we want to have such academic output to our knowledge.
Poverty Researcher: Yes.

Another day;
Researcher: The data was missing for the last a few years. Can I get it?
Officer: I cannot give you any more data, because as I said, you can have limited data for your study.
Researcher: But yesterday you said I can take the poverty data.
Offier: Yes, I said you can take 'THE' proverty data, which is what I gave you already.

Another day;
Officer: I must explain that you are not allowed to publish your finding.
Researcher: Why?
Officer: The data is within the poverty management office, so is the result. I explained this in the very first time you asked for it, that we want the result. We will decide if we publish it. I informed your research institution that this project is strictly within our office and they replied they will follow whatever rules and regulation that we improvise.

Another day;
Officer: I am sorry to let you know, the data is fake.
Researcher: What???
Officcer: You heard it right. It was collected by an officer who is no longer on the post. His method have faults and we ordered the survey to be redone in the same years. What you have is the first batch of data, and we cannot offer you the correct data. As I well-explained the first time you asked for the data, I am not authorized to release any data I am managing. I cannot do anything more and this project ceases.

What really happened is each time a higher level offier came and rewrite the decision, but that higher level officier decided not to meet you in person. You may think it is a joke if it is put on TV news, but I was having fun for lots of years watching ths drama from TV News channel. For a news reader with good memory, news reading is rather entertaining.

So is the same thing happening? Is the current news brooding a new decision that overwrites the previous one? I am speculating by saying yes, but even if it is not, it merely put more time between now and a disappointing new government action.

I thought I understood your entire post, but I don't know where you got "If this speculation is true, Bitcoin will be allowed to live for another 3 months" from. Why would you say 3 months?

And again, what game are the CEO's playing? I assume they are smart enough to know what you just explained if what you just explained is true. Why aren't they just moving out of the country?