I think this forecast has already lost its relevance. When I did it, Kadyrov's Chechen regiment was standing near Kyiv, waiting for Putin's signal to attack. Then he was transferred to Mariupol and they, along with the marines and militiamen of Donbass, took Mariupol. In urban battles, this is perhaps the most formidable weapon of Russia, hot bearded mountaineers who shout "Allah Akbar!" after each RPG shot or grenade throw, and they feel like fish in water under bullets.

Now the Chechen special forces "Akhmat" have been transferred from Mariupol to the East of Ukraine and, together with the Lugansk militia, are cleaning up the city of Rubizhne in the LPR.