Quote from: AnonyMint on March 31, 2014, 08:53:29 AM

Well on that log10 n chart, from Jan 12 to Jan 14 is roughly a 10X increase on the bottom trendline, thus sqrt(10) per year, thus n^2 = 10X per year. Thus price should be increasing 10X per year. Does that concur roughly with your trendline of p?

If I compound weekly a 8 - 10X price increase per annum from the $65 bottom at end of first week of July 2013, I calculate $297 to $350 as of April 1, 2014.

That projects to $1425 to $1985 by Jan. 1, 2015. Something like this is probably more realistic as the bottom (fundamental) level of adoption.

The strong hands probably buy based on these sort of level-headed calculations, not those least square fit to irrational exuberance deviations from the fundamental level of adoption.

The fundamental speculator buys on that bottom trendline and sells into the irrational exuberance. And gets very rich doing so.

Also putting a ruler on the bottoms of the n "All time" chart, I see that adoption slope slowed after July 2011. That is normal because adoption should be logistic.

We should now shift into yet again a lower adoption slope than from July 2011 to December 2013.