Quote from: be.open on Today at 03:57:21 AM

Quote from: LTU_btc on April 26, 2022, 11:27:40 PM

And I'm not sure why you're saying about too small forces, when there was close ti 200k troops near to Ukrainian border.

200,000 soldiers is dramatically small to start an operation; according to NATO intelligence estimates, the minimum number required to control only the eastern part of Ukraine is 400,000 soldiers. Russia began the operation with half the resources in terms of manpower, dispersed in addition to the East, also in the North and South. I think that's why NATO considered Putin's statements a bluff, NATO intelligence had accurate data, but made incorrect conclusions from them.

200k of obviously unprepared and un-informed soldiers is enough to control a country that surrenders. But not enough to take it over if there is determined resistance. That is the key mistake that has costed thousands of Putin's soldier's lives.

Now the Chief Psycho has decided to regroup, add some Tactical Cannon Fodder Battalions and try to achieve some limited gains in favourable terrain, near the bases in Russia and in a limited hostile territory. This guys knows the limits of Putin's Army and would rather try a modest "success" than a "glorious defeat". I reckon this guy is more cunning than the previous ones.

What is the caveat of this strategy? Dvornikov the Butcher, Chief Psycho, is, as many generals, fighting the last war. Time has always been on his side in Georgia and Syria - he had a influx of troops that could rotate, proper funding, international apathy for the conflicts, apathy or support from Russians and their enemies had limited supplies.

In Ukraine, time can be turned against him by:

- EU and US preparing to de-couple energetically and financially from Russia.
- Increased sanctions and continued diplomatic action.
- Increased military aid and intelligence support to Ukraine.
- Increased information to the Russian people about the thousands of soldiers dead.
- Attacks to critical infrastructure and legitimate targets in Russian territory.

It is for US and Europe to make this work.

Quote from: be.open on Today at 03:57:21 AM

Quote from: paxmao on April 26, 2022, 09:16:45 PM

Oh, I can help you with that. The guy's strategy is: using massively artillery in cities. Night and day, flatten them. He led the war in Syria... this is Aleppo after his "strategy". This is why the West should be helping Ukraine achieve a decisive victory, this guy is not a soldier, is a psycho.

Well, it seems that these are not very good prospects for Ukraine.

You are assuming there will be no consequences for Putin's Russia trying to do that in Europe?

Ukraine will be receiving all the help and supplies required to achieve a decisive victory. By this time, Putin's Chief Psychos must have noticed that US will not allow them to reach any significant gain, but they are certainly going to let Putin bleed, alas, with Europe. Russia did not learn anything from WW II, except to use their people as cannon fodder.

Quote from: be.open on Today at 03:57:21 AM

However, it seems that yesterday the intensity of artillery fire from Russia sharply decreased[...] I can assume that a significant part of the centers of fire resistance identified by reconnaissance has already been destroyed there and the preparatory part of the battle for Donbass has already ended.

Or one can assume many other things - if that information was true in the first place.

Quote from: be.open on Today at 03:57:21 AM

Quote from: LTU_btc on April 26, 2022, 11:27:40 PM

I'm not sure where did you got that Russian invasion become surprise for Ukraine, NATO and West. IIRC, few days before inavsion, USA intelligence warned that inavsion can begin at any moment, on 23th February state of emergency started in Ukraine. Though, Ukraine admitted that they didn't expected invasion in North, from Belarus side.

It doesn't matter how well Ukraine prepared for a Russian invasion if it missed a surprise blow. Although TwitchySeal believes that Ukraine won near Kyiv and kicked Russia's ass there, putting it to flight. This feature of Ukrainian propaganda does not surprise me; it even declared the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Mariupol as a victory.

be.open can word it however he wants, but the major surprise here was for Putin. The official initial objectives were:

"demilitarise" - Ukraine has an army that is stronger, better armed and better supported from outside than before.
"depose de government of Ukraine" - Ukraine government has now become a symbol of fight against tyranny.
"denazify" - Putin's actions got all the Nazi traits: encouraging Homophobia, Xenophobia ("gayrope"), militaristic, aggressive, curtailing free speech, incarcerating the opposition, invading neighbours, systematically destroying any balance of power, installing puppets and mass-graving civilians,... He has proven to be a Supremacist psycho.

The ones that were not declared:

- Install a puppet: Failed.
- Take Kyiv - expecting a surrender: Failed.
- Prevent Ukraine's access to the Black Sea: Failed (at least for now admittedly).

The ones that are achieved as of now:

- A corridor to Crimea... (except for the resistance in Mariupol).
- Territorial gains in the Donbass (very limited territorial gains).

Securing these two is still very questionable.

Quote from: be.open on Today at 03:57:21 AM

Quote from: LTU_btc on April 26, 2022, 11:27:40 PM

And this ''civilian war'' was started by Russia 8 years ago. And what is genocide of Russian speaking Donbass population is still big mistery for me.

You have an interesting interpretation of historical events, but I do not agree with it.

There is no way the separatists could have been funded an armed without Putin's money and support. It does not get any clearer.