Quote from: rpietila on March 31, 2014, 10:33:24 AM

I am fed up with everybody panicking, and this is realistically a sign when the bottom is in. China "ban" is an absolute nonevent, it was around longer than you have had an account. Yes, I do recommend buying because this is the bottom, any questions?

In all seriousness, I know that you are in control of a hell of a lot of Bitcoins, and that sub $500 has been your accumulation zone, and that any dip below this territory, perhaps starts eating into the actual profitability of some of your investments.

To me, as a mere onlooker with nothing much to lose except being whipsawed yet again out of a short position which had I just held out on would have came good (yet again), it seems pretty obvious that Bitcoin is going to go lower than the crucial $380 - $400 support. You, with your exponential mean curves and your heavily vested interests in This being the actual bottom on the otherhand, may be in a position where your emotions are tricking you into thinking that it is everyone else who is being emotional, whilst you are being rational, but are you really?

China has not yet banned Bitcoin outright and China is not yet fully priced in. As Zhangwheiu explained, it is not going to be their style to kill it outright, but rather slowly stifle it all the while pretending that they have nothing against Bitcoin or Bitcoin exchanges per se. They say the 15th April, in all likelihood this will drag on longer than that, and with it, the steady flow of CNY coins seeking arbitrage opportunity and/or last gasp means of getting wealth out of CNY and into USD. Joe Blow right now is scared of Bitcoin. Large investors know that now is not a good time to invest. There just isn't the buying pressure at the moment to push Bitcoin up beyond anything more than a counter trend rally, but the selling pressure will continue in a steady stream thanks to Chinese based investors getting out of Bitcoin.

We are currently trending on very low volume at $450, just $70 above a very significant price point and I think you will understand better than most what it will likely mean for market psychology if this $380 support fails to hold.

I have (practically) no market position that is affecting my emotional state. I say Bitcoin is going back to $200 range. If I am proven wrong than I shall be ready to jump back on if/when Bitcoin takes out and holds above important resistances (first being $480-$490), but will of course drop the lot the minute things start to look a bit shaky, as for me, my better instincts tell me that the writing is on the wall for Bitcoin.