Quote from: MatTheCat on March 31, 2014, 01:53:53 PM

Some people argue that price always moves towards the deepest Wall on the order book, I would suggest that it is entirely dependent on the situation in the market at the specific time.

Sure. As we are now at the bottom, the only ones who sell at this price are panickers. If you wanted to sell in an orderly way, there was plenty of time in December-January. This makes me forecast that price has an explosive upside potential, or at least the potential for explosive upside is higher than bloodbath.

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With that said, what large scale buyer of Bitcoin is going to push the price up over $100 with so many fretting bag-holders around desperate for a chance to cut losses? Who wants to make a collective $2.25 million investment only to see the nominal value of this investment nose dive 10% within the next day of trading?

When I bought bitcoins the first time, it fell to $2 next week. I was hardly irritated at all because I only invested what I could lose.

I don't buy the bagholders argument at all. According to my calculations in all my threads, the actual number of bitcoins traded is small, and pigs don't have much money to play with. If I was in charge of a large entity trying to accumulate bitcoins, I would be grateful for every day I can add to my holdings regardless of whether it happens at 400 or 500.

Don't get too preoccupied with USD price of stuff. That can go up or vanish in an instant, and the number of USD themselves fluctuate. Bitcoin game is about bitcoins, not USD. The latter is a vehicle for earning more bitcoins, not vice versa.

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I would suggest that there is a tint of emotion and defensiveness in your posts that isn't normally there. I am not saying this to try and wind you up, I am saying it because I notice it.

You are right, I know my emotions. But I am rejoicing in it, because I felt exactly this same after I proclaimed myself bear November 20th. Everyone ridiculed me. It did go up for 10 more days, which was the ATH. I was overturned for a brief moment and did not make a killing with the top, like I could have, if I had just stayed in my analysis and acted on it.

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Quote from: rpietila on March 31, 2014, 01:30:13 PM

All the time since December, until Feb 25th, I was having about that much money in bids in Bitstamp. For 6 weeks, they were about 10% of the visible orderbook between 400-800. All the time, I was wanting for Bitcoin price to go... up?

I would suggest that these buy-in tranches are structured in such a way where the stinging ones that are triggered way above 'the bottom' can and will be sold back into market at break even or profit. They range deep enough, that should they all be triggered, then it would have to be some kind of flash crash where a violent rebound is nearly always guaranteed. Cos it is on Bitstamp, chances are these bids can be taken at face value however....Bitfinex, now that would be another matter entirely.

It is an excellent time to make daytrade gains, if you are on top of it. There is volatility, the general direction of the market is clear (up - no matter what you say), there is volume, and percentagewise the rise from 400 to 600 is a cool 50%, unlike 1000->1200 which is only 20%.

The last capitulation could very well happen again.