Quote from: Tafelpoot on March 31, 2014, 09:52:10 AM

Quote from: Cognitive-PR on March 31, 2014, 05:33:56 AM

Hello everyone,

Just to clarify electricity prices for the new data center in Canada:

They are charging $270/kWh/month
So total cost = $270/kWh/month * 30kW (set amount) = $8100
+ $1150 setup/provisioning fee = $9250

It is Garrett's believe that even with these costs, Cognitive Mining will gain back the money it has lost. We are currently at 17 TH/s, and Garrett is planning to get one more unit up and running at the shop here in Montana which will hopefully bring it up to 18TH/s.

- Samuel

I made some calculations before the weekend, but with the exchange rates going down it looks a bit worse.
On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that Garrett had to pay this month's mining in advance, so he might have been lucky there...

If cognitive chooses to go for mining (and paying hosting bills):
At 500 usd/btc, mining at 20 TH/s using 30kW electricity at 0.37 usd/kWh will produce
-   103 btc before we start running at a loss in 180 days, assuming 10% difficulty jumps.
-   69 btc before we start running at a loss in 125 days, assuming 15% difficulty jumps.
-   52 btc before we start running at a loss in 100 days, assuming 20% difficulty jumps.

At 450 usd/btc, mining at 20 TH/s using 30kW electricity at 0.37 usd/kWh will produce
-   93 btc before we start running at a loss in 175 days, assuming 10% difficulty jumps.
-   62 btc before we start running at a loss in 115 days, assuming 15% difficulty jumps.
-   46 btc before we start running at a loss in 90 days, assuming 20% difficulty jumps.

This assumes that Garrett is able to maintain 20 TH/s on average without too much variations.

If cognitive chooses to sell everything:
22 units at 8000usd a piece, we are in for 176k usd = 352 btc (500 usd/btc).
Add the 30 btc (29. Cool

of the whole Cog Fund:
-   7.67 in 1cogxX mining eligius
-   1.08 in 1cogHC mining altcoins
-   1.89 in 1cogtX mining eligius B
-   15.95 in 1coggh reserve wallet
-   3.2 in 1LQFqj Havelock deposit
-   xxxx mining profits of april (about 20-30 btc).

Conclusion: sell now should provide about 380 btc now, while mining will provide about 50 btc in 3 months.

Division over 14420 shares (825 unclaimed) is 0.026 per share if we sell, opposed to 0.0034 x 50% in the coming 3 months if we continue mining with these high hosting costs.
This is almost a nobrainer. The best Garrett can do to save his reputation is to get the most out of the negotiations with Cointerra and get it delivered asap. We should embrace the decreasing exchange rates to sell some HW for usd.

I'm inclined to agree. The two biggest problems are the exchange rate and Active Mining finally going into production.

The low exchange rate means we can get more BTC for our hardware. We pay more in BTC terms for our hosting ($0.37/kWh is pretty steep too). After hosting, the reserve fund won't be able to buy us a significant amount of new hardware and definitely not enough to stay ahead of the diff growth.

The Active Mining situation will bump difficulty growth to the high side of the 15-20% range. We were looking at growth in the top of the 10-15% range until Friedcat's gen 3 hit the market but Active Mining's ~4 PH/s will bump it up in the mean time.

Unless Garr can magically double our hashrate in a few weeks for no money or the exchange rate rises enough to make our dollar costs negligible, Cog is pretty much dead in the water.