Interesting points, but:
What I notice about the July 2013 capitulation is some very high volume (relative to the time) around the days prior to and after the final low. In contrast, the volume around the present low has been in contrast, average and the most notable trades have been large scale dumps, with the price rising on much lower volume.
I tried to confirm this in different resolutions, and found that in 6-hour chart it is true that as long as the bottom was not in, the high volume candles were red, and green candles had lower volume. After it turned, it was the opposite.
Until so far, we are in the red volume mode. What I have said earlier today that I give 168 hours for this to change. When the volume confirms the tide change, we are already so high that there is a risk for a short-term pullback.
In general I don't understand momentum trading, perhaps that is why. My idea is to buy low and sell high. I don't want to attack momentum traders, if they make money it's fine.
the panic buyers $500-$550........and then who is buying? Nobody? Well guess what happens next amongst a back drop of hoardes of stolen coins and arbitrage taking and USD cashing out Chinese?
After a bottom it goes up. We've seen this like.. 7 times now in Bitcoin's history. 99.95% don't own bitcoins. Hundreds of millions have now heard about them, mostly negative. It takes 12-24 months for them to buy. The first 1% of them is the next 500% of Bitcoin adoption, the ones who lift the price to $5,000 before leaves fall from the trees. If 5 million people invest $1,000 per person, they can buy 10 million bitcoins. That absorbs all the lonely Chinese and stolen coins, like many times before. There is nothing new in Bitcoin. Everything has happened before. It is a fractal. Before I even bought, it was explained to me.
If Bitcoin swings strongly upwards from the $400 zone, but fails to break and confirm itself beyond the long term down trend, I doubt that the market will waste much time in deciding Bitcoin's fate. There will be no doubts and a race to take profits/cut losses. How would support at and above $380 be if such a scenario were to play out, and lets face it, it easily could. Hate to say it but what Bitcoin probably needs to avoid an inevitable slide below $380 is some kind of isolated non USD economic crisis, and a bit of good old capital flight.......which is what I have come to believe Bitcoin was designed for in the first place (I have gone from being a libertarian 'believer' to having the view that Bitcoin is most likely a US intelligence agency project) .
Of course this is possible and some EW theorists believe it but I give higher odds for staying above 400 and therefore making a solid quadruple bottom going back to November, with ascending lows.
I believe you are too preoccupied with USD. The feedback loop of (lower USD price -> less users -> even lower price) has
never before held true with Bitcoin, and I have no reason to believe it would now. There are so many reasons for increasing adoption, which inevitably leads to increased price that it is foolish to bet against it.