Quote from: be.open on Today at 09:08:39 AM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on Today at 09:00:38 AM

Quote from: Tash on Today at 06:25:26 AM

Donbas defence falling apart
https://youtu.be/AjbyYtbTuO0

So basically the ukrainian army is retreating to shorten their supply paths, while lenghtening the russian ones.
You may call it "intentionally falling apart".
Of course, state controlled media of Russia will exploit this as a victory, while also announcing that Russia has already destroyed 150% of western heavy artillery supplies and 200% of ukrainian nazi ammunition. As a proof, they will use embedded reporting to show artillery projectiles with laser engraved swastikas.

#meh

While the Ukraine is evidently backed by western intelligence, Russia's moves are obviously backed by russian... uhm.. "intelligence".
Looking forward to July, when all the new western supplied weaponry is moving against them BTG's in the ~~liberalized~~ occupied areas in east of Ukraine.

All the russian weapons and vehicles built after WW2 were produced to be used, so be it. We'll see if high precision weapons will give an advantage over "high precision" weapons, unless the former will be destroyed at a rate of several hundred percent, while being delivered in direction of the frontlines.

Nasdrovje? Roll Eyes

What is this if not a victory?

According to Zelensky, Russia has 20 times more equipment in Donbas than Ukrainians.

Russia has concentrated a large number of Tactical Cannon Fodder Battalions in the area with a great result: They took a village. And.. oh, well... they lost quite a bit of ground near Kharkiv. The Ukrainian army has showed great strength and determination, but I would say that above all, it has shown excellent command and ability to use their limited means to a great effect.

But it is just too easy to look at the tactical maps and the "toys of war" that may confer a false sense of security based on and idealised technological superiority that does not really materialise on the ground. This is a long war, and it is becoming a war of economic attrition. Despite being Russia a country with good resources, there are many capabilities that are critical for a modern economy: economic networks, soft power, microchips and other components, free trade,... All that is not as cool as the "look at me Terminator (which for the trained eye is clearly not an innovation at all and a design mistake from top to bottom)" or the "hypersonic" missiles nor even the "Javelins" or NLAWS, but that is what is going to win this war.

If we look at history, the collapse of the Russian army will start by an increased unrest in the population once they start noticing the effects of the sanctions (now, they are only getting a glimpse of it) and doubting more and more the "carpet lying" on public media. Sooner rather than later, it will become impossible being able to convince the young to join the army. There will be forceful recruitments and the soldiers sent to the front to replace the thousands of dead - some of them experienced in Syria and Chechenia - will not only be untrained, but also unmotivated.

At a certain point, the psychos (AKA Putin's generals) will notice that when they order the troops to advance, the tanks will have no fuel or will be mysteriously broken. The troops will only follow orders if closely watched by the officers and the indiscipline will make impossible to operate. The "high precision" weapons cannot help when the soldiers on the ground are not willing to fight.

Eventually, after many of the Psychos are demoted, even the Chief Psycho will notice that it is impossible to undertake any offensive action. The only option left will be to entrench the troops, put officers to actually prevent mass defections and wait for the Ukrainian army counter-offensive.

However, the Russian army would only be able to hold the larger cities. Anything else will succumb to the modern weaponry sent from the west and aimed with the best military intelligence resources available in the world. And this is how the story ends.... Large groups of Russian armies being captured, or even attacked by the population into retreating or surrendering. Mariupol will be an anecdote compared to the collapse of Putin's army.

Consequences will be felt in Russia for decades. Isolated diplomatically, crippled by sanctions and unable to wage war against their neighbours or to produce any modern weapon due to sanctions, and only able to maintain its borders by means of the nuclear deterrent, that eventually will disappear once the technology of interception is sufficiently advanced.

Stop the war. Do not die for Putin.