Quote from: Biodom on Today at 06:49:57 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on Today at 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: serveria.com on Today at 07:27:08 AM

We can finally see some green! Well, this was predictable after 9 (10?) weeks of red. Not a real pump yet, but hopefully we'll see some $32-33k soon. Cool

So, is this a:

* relief rally to $38-42k?
* mighty bull starting back to ATH?
* weak dead cat bounce to $30-32k with moar pain following?

I'd go for option 1. A relief rally to ~$40K levels with good potential for ~$30K levels to hold therefore. Notably once Bitcoin leaves <30 RSI "oversold" levels on Weekly time-frame, it doesn't return thereafter. Even with price often returning to similar closing price levels shortly after (so in this case around $29.5K), price historically has never made a new low after leaving these oversold conditions. For what that's worth.

Either the above or option 3, with a bit more downside in the following weeks to the anticipated 200 Week MA @ $22K. But this seems overly-anticipated right now imo. I otherwise don't think there's any real resistance between $32K and $40K levels. $34K would have been the theoretical resistance, but given it didn't act as support on the most recent way down, I doubt it would be resistance on the way back up either.

Despite thinking the bottom is either in, or close to it, I don't see a bull market this year at all. More likely consolidation between $30K and $60K. Similar to in 2019 when Bitcoin went from $3.2K to $14K and most were convinced that the bull market had started, until price re-tested $4K levels. Even ignoring that covid crash, price still took a year to consolidate back to the $10K levels, and had already dropped by 50%.

Think I mentioned it before but wouldn't be surprised to see price return to $50K to $60K by summer, before re-testing $30K again by the end of the year, maybe the 200 Week MA will be around this price by then. This is mainly due to Weekly moving average bearish cross-over which Bitcoin has always been very respectful of, ie showing that price is moving up too fast after a drop and needs more time to consolidate.

Also will give all the noobs the opportunity to buy high again after selling low, before price drops upto 50% and the bull market starts up again. Ie the usual recipe for another uptrend.

Great analysis. I also expect a bounce (could be to the middle of 30K-60K range or even up to 50K or slightly above as you mentioned), but then consolidation to the $30K (or slightly below) area. I might even trade some for the first time since 2017, essentially.

For reference sake the fib retracement from $69K ATH to $25K low gives a target of $52K for the 0.618 "expected retracement". So these would be the levels for a dead cat bounce / lower high scenario, rather than any dead cat (failure) to ~$40K before a lower low. Notably in 2019 the 0.618 retracement from $20K to $3.2K was $13.7K that was hit perfectly, so $52K would be the equivalent type of relief rally basically.

Also tempted to trade this one, for first time since 2019, long then short. As either the new low has been reached after May 2021 high (1 year later), or the low could arrive in November this year (1 year after ATH). Either way, as per 2015 and 2019, there'd likely be a secondary low 6-12 months thereafter. Not convinced a November low would need to be to be any lower than May's low either.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 06:49:57 PM

EDIT: I am surprised that we already moved to RSI(14)=46 (from 23 on May 11) with so little price improvement.

RSI is like that. Only goes lower if price goes lower. If price goes sideways, generally it will increase. While a good sign, it can also provide more room to the downside.