Quote from: be.open on Today at 10:57:15 AM

Quote from: paxmao on Today at 09:19:18 AM

Quote from: Hydrogen on Today at 04:54:03 AM

Quote from: paxmao on Today at 12:05:32 AM

US GDP will be largely untouched and growing. Russia's will not.

Really?

Like this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5400804.0

What do you base your claims on?

Again, you are mixing concepts. The volatility of the rouble is based on the competitiveness of the currency in the global market, not on the GDP. On top of that and if you are speaking of debt in particular, you should look at the interest rates. You cannot keep the rate that the RF central bank has set without damaging growth.

I am afraid that I am going to explain some very basic economic concepts here:

Just so that even those with little understanding of what this means: US finances it's debt at 0.75% interest. Russia has to pay 17% (as of today) for people to hold roubles - along with breaching contracts and demanding payment in roubles. Now you got the full picture and why debt at .75% is not really an issue.

What happens when people can get a 17% just by lending the money? Very simple: they do not invest and they may choose not to buy beyond the strictly necessary. This situation cannot hold - it is temporary and the valuation of the rouble, in my view, will be permanently damaged with the new diplomatic stance of the RF.

Lack of investment has a side consequence on countries that are heavy exporters of commodities - production requires CAPEX. High interest rates make CAPEX projects and productive investment less attractive as just by holding you get 17%.

Just to put an example: If you have 1000 USD and you leave them during 5 years at 17% you would get 1873 USD ("risk free"). That is a "trash bond" and the RF has become exactly that: a trash debtor.

At this point on the discussion and to make it fair, I would ask you on what do you base your claim that a country with 1/15th of the GDP of the US and subject to sanctions is going to be the "next superpower".

OCDE data to 2060 paints a very different picture (unfortunately I cannot link a picture, so just select Russia, US, OCDE and China). The next superpower will not write Latin or Cyrillic characters.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-long-term-forecast.htm

Why don’t you say in your reasoning that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already lowered the rate twice, most recently by 3%, and now the key rate in Russia is 11% with a tendency to further decrease? Why don't you also say that Russia, unlike Western countries, has a very small debt burden and the issue of debt refinancing is not too acute?

Sure... 11%... just around 10 times more than US and several times EU, UK, etc... rates, makes no difference to the argument whatsoever.

We can now talk about the recent European oil embargo approved today. THAT will make a difference.