The beauty of the 5.25-year trendline with exponential fit (R^2=0.93 which is pretty darn good) is that it takes into account every worry of every person who has ever owned or not owned bitcoins. I put more weight on that than the individual worries of a single person.
You put a lot of weight in your humongous pride, as if someone presenting analytical discussion is worried. I am not worried about the BTC price. I could careless because I don't own any BTC nor am I itching to buy any. And you put a lot of weight in arbitrary curve fits.
And people who think they know every thing for sure (and you don't even enumerate the arbitrary assumptions in your model), eventually get a lesson in respecting chaos. Maybe not this time. No one knows. But eventually yes.
I hope you realize the following chart is arbitrary BS.
I have to say I find this interchange to be most revealing and astute.
Those of us with no or little BTC investment seem to be ridiculed for being 'scared' when asking questions of the sermon.
And, as I posted up thread, my main problem with all of this is the certainty that is expressed, much of which is based on a line drawn through a graph. But spending a lot of time reading through the forum (and the other place) I am getting the feeling that expectations are shifting...a few weeks back revisiting the four hundreds was "highly unlikely". Now I see a lot more talk of the three hundreds.
With regard to BitPay....I too have struggled with AnonyMint's problem with it (beyond the political) but am I right in saying Bitpay will constantly be selling coins for fiat, which will impact price? But the whole idea of BTC changing the world politically has always been a non-starter.
@AM -- Also, the concept of confiscations? Won't the nouveau riche be the first to be targeted? Is it not a good idea that Risto, Goat et al share some of their wealth around rather than spending it on vanity projects? As nouveau poor I see little wrong with this.
But loved the comment about markets....have adopted for my sig.
