Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
empowering
on 11/06/2022, 16:52:07 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
It is the sideeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeways I fear the most... that is the worst of the worst.

+1 Sideways sucks the most

Dunno, for traders maybe yes. For hodlers, down is most painful...  Cool

“Sideways” means low volatility; the extreme of sideways-ness is price stability.

The theoretically ideal form of money is price-stable.  Volatility only benefits traders, at the expense of everyone else.

If BTC could become price-stable,* then I would prefer that.  The world cannot run on volatile money alone, nor on deflationary money alone.  (Note to Jay:  I am perfectly well aware that price-stable BTC will never happen.)

Since I don’t swing-trade, the only thing uncomfortable to me about a sideways market is that I never know whether it’s about to crash, or about to moon.


* I mean price-stable according to an index of goods and services.  That means rising against the dollar, as the dollar depreciates from inflation.  The dollar is not price-stable; to the contrary, the dollar is a volatile currency.  Have you seen dollar prices lately!?  Not only the obvious increase in prices, but the fluctuations as markets adapt to price shocks.


I didn't mention sound/ideal money, and for that yup, price stability is what is needed.

However arguably, the BTC market needs the volatility while it is being boostrapped to become ideal money.

There is a lot of money that needs to come into the market, for BTC, to grow to the size where it can handle the requirements of a global economy.. money allocators now, cant just say, huh, I need to put a half a trillion dollars into BTC, because the slippage would be killer.... so they enter and exit markets and build it up capital in BTC instead and accumulate at cycle lows (are they manipulating these cycles now? hmmm perhaps)   eitherway, for BTC to soak up the capital that needs to enter into the market, it needs to be volatile, and eventually be volatile to the upside....  eventually, the market should ideally grow to a size where the market is of a size and liquidity that is so great, that it can handle the inflows and outflows, without it impacting the market so much (volatility) and then if there is more usage , then it can handle velocity too. This has to be the way until people start to think in BTC terms, ie it decouples from the money markets.

I think likely that there is another cycle or two or three up, and then with ETFs, Options and futures, that BTC volatility is tamed in this way.... which is not ideal...  would have to be revisited if and when BTC is used and priced vs index of goods and services and used as a currency in its own right.

I am still not super convinced that BTC NEEDS to become "currency" and would be perfectly happy for it to be considered as "digital gold" but whichever, I would be happy.