Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:38:41 AM

Quote from: Hueristic on June 11, 2022, 07:01:43 PM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on June 07, 2022, 09:49:14 PM

Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations.

Trying to catch up and not really up to posting but this is a great chart visualization you setup so had to comment.

What is the absolute minimum time frame for length to be in profit.

Obviously its in between the 2 and 4 year but i'd like to know the exact timeframe as it would be nice to see if it holds as we progress.

Thanks Hueristic, and to everyone who found my visualization helpful (links to post and video, for those who missed it[/url]). I'm also VERY busy IRL right now, so I've had to switch to "lurker" mode. I'm trying to keep up with WO, and very quickly skimming through the posts.

On to your question, which is very interesting, and is one that also came into my mind while writing the visualization code and observing the results. You're right, the profit threshold is between 2 and 4 years. This is obvious, by comparing the plots for Case 4 and Case 5. Answering the question programmatically is not very trivial, so I found the answer graphically, by observing adjacent plots (one day apart), around the time point the spiral untangles. It turns out that the profit threshold is at 1096 days. This is around 156 weeks, or exactly 3 years. The funny (and interesting) thing is that this threshold is EXACTLY 3 years to the day (1096 / 365.25 = 3.0007)! The price point at that time is just under $20k (around $19,700).

Here's the relevant polar plot:

https://i.imgur.com/Cpy9noO.png

When I have some free time I'll try to think of other ways to visualize price data, so that we can get a better understanding of price dynamics. For the time being, I'm in "HoDL-&-wait" mode. The recent price drop (and even today's drop to nearly $27k) does not worry me. I'm convinced that it's just a matter of time for price to reach 6 digits and beyond. Just need to wait for a little while longer... We're all used to that. This is fine.

#bitcoin #usd
oh noooo !