Quote from: goldkingcoiner on Today at 06:25:54 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 05:19:44 PM

Looks like we got some capitulation today. Volumes are spiking up to near the Do Kwon disaster now and it appears the worst is behind us (for now). The dead cat bounce to $24K doesn't appear to be holding, so I expect we'll do some testing of these new recent lows. With Binance resuming withdrawals though, it seems like today's low may finally be in after a night of crypto being ravaged. Stocks are taking a hit as well, so it begs the question of if the Fed will continue raising rates and winding down their balance sheet. Unless they're pivoting to a new strategy, I expect we'll hear some news about backing off their plans this week. After living through the 2008-2012 period, I expect billions of dollars in stimulus to be announced anytime the market shows disapproval of the Government's actions. In this case though, we may need Fed action as the government appears to be backed into a corner.

Historically, what happened to the Bitcoin price after stimulus?

Within the 13 years of Bitcoin’s existence—within the approximately 11–12 years that Bitcoin has had some sort of a functioning market, there is no prior precedent for the post-Covid “stimulus” situation.

A more interest question: Historically, what happened in scenarios that were partly analogous from various angles?

I myself am not inclined to undertake that discussion in WO. But it is something to consider.

A related note, not directed at the persons quoted above:

I warn against the foreshortening of predictions, and generally against jumping to conclusions. Since the 1970s at the latest, every astute observer has known that the global financial system must someday collapse. It is based on politicians who act on time horizons of the next election, CEOs who act on time horizons of the next earnings report, and whole generations of people who bequeath the results of their own selfishness and foolishness to their own descendants: A house of cards built on debt and duplicitous accounting tricks, as inheritance. It is unsustainable. However, that does not mean that anyone can accurately predict what will happen when. The can has been kicked down the road for a long time; who knows how much longer that can continue?

For an admittedly rough analogy: “Number go up” is a more or less reliable long-term prediction about Bitcoin. But opening leveraged longs based on that is a poor idea—a poor idea.

Always be cautious about crystal-ball predictions of the future, and weigh the balance of probabilities based on available evidence.