Quote from: oda.krell on April 02, 2014, 04:12:40 PM

Quote from: EuroTrash on April 02, 2014, 04:07:39 PM

Good point, oda.krell.

Someone here said that if $200 ever happens (and I don't think so), you won't want to buy.

OTOH I am surprised that, so far, only the western markets are dropping on Chinese news.

I'm not sure it's that easy...

That's another thing I thought about earlier today: a number of really reasonable forum members made claims in the past like "If we ever go back into the double digits, it will be on the way to zero", or "one thing we know for sure is that we never fall below the previous ATH".

Problem is, we have almost no data. We trade this mofo for a bit more than 3 years. All those "patterns" that are supposed to hold in all eternity (like the one that says we don't correct lower than previous ATH), we have 2, maybe 3 repetitions. As anyone with a bit of knowledge of statistics can tell you, that's nothing to work with. You can still use it as your best bet for trading (and I'm sure the previous ATH, if we go that low, would be a point of support), but the idea that it *never* can happen because it didn't happen *3 times* is ludicrous.

So maybe we go all the way back to 300. Maybe 200. Maybe below 100 (unlikely, but as always possible). I'll buy back when I see a trend reversal, not because of a number.

Totally agree. "Well it always rallied before to a new ATH, so it will again and we will see 1000% gains every year". Its obvious to anyone who does the maths that it can't keep having those gains every year forever