Quote from: Biodom on June 15, 2022, 10:30:41 PM

I am not expecting this, but is it possible that they truly lost it?
We shall see.
Will 3.5-3.75 interest rate be enough by the EOY?

There is a nice video from Ben Cowen about inflation and stock market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0fM5nlujp4

One thing that was informative is that seventies had three inflation spikes, followed by valleys, but the first one was smaller than our current spike, but it is entirely possible that it would work out like this (my speculation):

1. A current spike extending to EOY (inflation peaking maybe at 9, and probably below 10).
2. Markets at the lowest with inflation at the highest.
3. Decline in inflation (2023-2024) to 3.5-4% with stocks (and bitcoin) recovering and peaking in 2025 with bitcoin at 100K or slightly (20-40%) above and stocks within 5-10% of the prior peak (could be small ATH).
4. Second spike in inflation to 9-12% (maybe by 2026-2027). Fed rate at something currently unimaginable (maybe 5-7% or even higher), markets crushed again, but making higher lows (including btc). The bear cycle ends around 2028-2032 with prices still significantly higher than in 2026-2027.
5. Inflation finally going down, FED is easing profusely, a new secular bull market in everything (could last 20 years). Bitcoin cycles diminished, much smoother ride (for those who are still around).

There are people who believe that the Fed cannot sustain rates on the 10-yr higher than 4%, because legit shit in the financial system will start breaking down. The stonk market will begin to implode. Not to mention the interest that will need to be paid every year on the national debt...unsustainable.