Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
There's enough fundamental and technical reasons why many think $20K was the bottom. See below for why it also might not be...
Source: https[Suspicious link removed]c-says-btc-undervalued-and-oversold
Source: Weekly RSI (Lowest ever recorded level)
Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
One reason why it might not be... price has only just entered the capitulation zone.
Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/
Here's another way to look at that metric.
Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/
Currently staying neutral until the end of the week
Source: https[Suspicious link removed]c-says-btc-undervalued-and-oversold
Source: Weekly RSI (Lowest ever recorded level)
Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
One reason why it might not be... price has only just entered the capitulation zone.
Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/
Here's another way to look at that metric.
Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/realized-price/
Currently staying neutral until the end of the week
Charts are nice but look at it from mining viewpoint and it is easy to see 15-17k is likely to happen close to the July 15 possible fed rate day.
here goes a s17 set to low power does 42th
42 th is 42 x .0895 = $3.75 earned
burns 34 kwatts so 34 x .08 = 2.72
profit = $1.03 for an eight cent farm with paid off s17 so a 1.4 megawatt farm which is still small for a commercial farm
is earning about 1k a day
this is current price of coin and current difficulty. I can tell you most bottoms the 8 cent miner is just under water.
that means 0.0895 per th needs to be 0.0640 cent a th
0.0640/0.0895 x 22000 = 15731 per coin puts the 8 cent miner under water.
I have mined since 2012 and crashes tend to stop at the 8 cent red line price point for miners.
so I stick with 15-17k as bottom.
I think this is possible, but on the low side. I think we have more chance of wicking to 17.5 before running back up to 21k fairly quickly... and this week is a hot time for it to possibly happen. That would keep the WMA integrity, but really be a good vomity capitulation.
Also it agrees with the fibs drawn from covid low to ATH:
Of course I HOPE we are already bottomed, but it is not LOOKING like it, market activity wise. I want to get see where the long/short is at, because I do believe if there are a lot of longs then there is some real incentive to get that wick down.