Just to be the contrarian... this is exactly what has happened multiple times with the 200WMA and just about ALL Bitcoinner TA folks are pointing to this as the most concrete indicator we ever use.  Members of this thread (including you) have suggested exactly this would happen since BEFORE the last ATH was reached.

We could expect in a worst case scenario we wick under the line and close the week close to it and start back up from there...

But max pain would come with a different outcome.

I think it is also interesting to think that the whole world is looking at this right now.  I would GUESS that institutional and pro investors are very close to backing up the truck here or already are.  We should see a HUGE bullish defense of ~20k.  But the people who hate bitcoin may also want to try to move the market into territory that would appear very negative.  If you want to kick it while it's down THIS would be the time to send out the FUD (ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA!!!) or try to manipulate again with leveraged positions on retail exchanges.

Bitcoin is no longer magical internet money for geeks.  It is a reliable worldwide reserve asset (in adolescence).

We have been to the 200WMA before... but never exactly like this.  Is it different this time?  I honestly hope not.  I would love to see it do what so many expect.

But so many expect it...