Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 16, 2022, 10:13:38 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on June 16, 2022, 02:59:26 PM

Quote from: ImThour on June 16, 2022, 12:57:30 PM

Quote from: vapourminer on June 16, 2022, 12:54:35 PM

my lowest buy this dip was at ~24.5k usd. if this is the bottom thats close enough for me. it was a buy i had set up months ago and i actually forgot about it till it triggered.

ive been on cruise control for a long time and dont try to time anything. seems to work well enough.

I am calling it bottom this week 101%. Lowest we can go in 3 days, $18k. That's it imho.
There can be a long ass wick however closing will be pretty much be up 2017 ATH levels.
Long term, very safe bet.

Just to be the contrarian... this is exactly what has happened multiple times with the 200WMA and just about ALL Bitcoinner TA folks are pointing to this as the most concrete indicator we ever use. Members of this thread (including you) have suggested exactly this would happen since BEFORE the last ATH was reached.

We could expect in a worst case scenario we wick under the line and close the week close to it and start back up from there...

But max pain would come with a different outcome.

I think it is also interesting to think that the whole world is looking at this right now. I would GUESS that institutional and pro investors are very close to backing up the truck here or already are. We should see a HUGE bullish defense of ~20k. But the people who hate bitcoin may also want to try to move the market into territory that would appear very negative. If you want to kick it while it's down THIS would be the time to send out the FUD (ILLEGAL IN RUSSIA!!!) or try to manipulate again with leveraged positions on retail exchanges.

Bitcoin is no longer magical internet money for geeks. It is a reliable worldwide reserve asset (in adolescence).

We have been to the 200WMA before... but never exactly like this. Is it different this time? I honestly hope not. I would love to see it do what so many expect.

But so many expect it...

In other words... you seem to be saying:

it could go up, but then it might go sideways or down..

Anything can happen, and especially the thing that you do not expect to happen, but you are not going to know in advance whether the thing that you do not expect to happen happens until after it already happened.

Cheesy

If that is how you read it. But I liked my version better. Wink

Also, I am not really making short term price predictions. What I am saying is we have not seen the mother of all bull markets yet. Although we will never see gains like were realized bertrween 2010-2014 again we WILL see, in the overall scale of things, a massive rise in the price... some day.

Again, I think we will see the bitcoin adoption curve reflected in the price of the asset. And that that curve will, like most others, have a middle section where adoption is happening the fastest. I think we might even see an exaggerated adoption curve because of the nature of this technology.

So far one of the most accurate models that can be backfitted to the bitcoin price is a parabolic curved range with a decreasing slope on both the lower and upper bounds. This makes sense for many reasons. One of the most obvious is as Bitcoin goes up in value it takes progressively more to raise the price which is slowing both the volatility and price rise of the asset.

(credit @davethewave on twitter)

This model eventually breaks, in my opinion, as the adoption of bitcoin as a reserve asset causes the downward slope to be temporarily overcome. This has no relevance to the short term price, or if we are near the bottom of a bear market, or what price Bitcoin will be next month.

I think we are somewhere near the blue circle as far as adoption goes...