Quote from: windjc on April 02, 2014, 09:52:47 PM

Quote from: smoothie on April 02, 2014, 09:44:39 PM

Quote from: arepo on March 30, 2014, 09:37:52 PM

Quote from: smoothie on March 30, 2014, 09:27:35 PM

I see a spring that is coiling.

Grin

care to be more explicit? it does seem like we're near a market bottom, unless the price support in my previous post fails (which seems awfully unlikely given the bid support at Bitstamp). but all i've pointed out is that we haven't yet seen quite enough volume for the downtrend from $600 to terminate, based on the two previous capitulation events in the past 5 months.

in the short-term, i see an ascending triangle consolidation pattern forming that will likely terminate with a bulltrap that fails to break out above the moving resistance defining this downtrend:

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6-hour scale

http://i.imgur.com/8jn5sjB.png

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granted, this will be an important test, and a decision point to give the market a chance to reverse at these price levels. however, i anticipate that ask depth will steadily fill in during this consolidation and the market will be ready for another move down by the time we reach this resistance.

--arepo

The spring I am referencing is much longer term than the charts you are looking at here.

Remember the last coil in July 2013? I believe it is happening again. Just a matter of time.

Let the weak hands sell then we can move up.

I'm not so sure anymore. I think we might see the 200s again in the next couple of months. China is going to be severely handicapped so money will not flow into the markets much from there for a long time. Companies like Neo and Bee made critical mistakes (undercapitalization) and failed at bringing game changing services to places like Cyprus. The most successful bitcoin companies are ones that basically save merchants transaction fee charges by using the bitcoin platform, but do not inject money into the bitcoin exchanges or encourage businesses to hold bitcoins.

I don't think Bitcoin is dead or would even be dead if we went to double digits. I do however think that bitcoin has some SERIOUS growing up to do and we are in a process of killing off the core group of unsavvy unprofessional people who championed us this far while replacing them with more traditional business leaders. And until that process matures some more, we aren't going to see capital inflow from large hands across the world.

Bitcoin has got to take some more heavy left handed crosses to the chin before it can officially maintain high dollar heights. And because these more traditional business leaders move more carefully and diligently, it might be 2015 before we see some real recoevery. 2014 might be a dark year (ie 2011) for bitcoin price indexes.

I'm with oda.krell. Smart post. It's nice to see a dose of realism here too.