Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 15, 2022, 01:54:53 AM

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Thanks man, you dont gotta go in deeper, its always hard to recommend particular assets to a broad audience, because everyone needs/ situation is different. Growing such a large portfolio will also take time, we will have enough to do our homework till then. Was still interesting hearing your take.

Yes, everyone is different in regards to how much they are able to put into something like BTC on a regular basis in order to grow and BTC price changes can affect both the on the spot valuations regarding how much BTC is worth versus other allocations, which can affect target levels in which accumulators/HODLers will choose whether to reallocate or just let their BTC continue to ride without reallocating it.

For example, if you already have a decently sized investment portfolio in various other assets at the time that you come into BTC, then you may well feel less compelled to either reallocate it, so even if investment fund managers and traditional financial consultants/advisors might have obligations to either reallocate/rebalance or to advice clients to reallocate/rebalance, individuals have no such mandates (or guidelines) and they can choose in regards to their own variables whether they believe that it would be prudent to reallocate/rebalance and upon which conditions they would reallocate/rebalance if they were to choose to do so (including if there might be tax consequences for such rebalancing).

Yes, some folks might be able to dedicate $100 or more per/week towards BTC accumulation/buying, and others might be in positions in which they are only able to invest $10 or less per week, so it could take a decent amount of time to reach various BTC accumulation goals/target levels or even to trigger reallocation concerns.

Changes in personal circumstances including cashflow or even other personal matters could change how aggressive any BTC accumulator/holder might feel that they can be, and changes in BTC spot price affecting valuation of BTC previously accumulated or costs per unit of present/future BTC could affect how aggressive any BTC HODLer/accumulator feels that s/he can be, and sometimes the first feelings/impressions might not be the correct ones, such as fear when the BTC price goes down might inspire less buying rather than either continuing to buy the same amount or even stepping up some of the buys (if that might seem prudent or possible), and the opposite feelings might happen when the BTC price goes up there might develop feelings to buy more because of feelings of wealth effect.. and that might not be the best approach.. including that there might be times that it is prudent to shave off a bit of profits (maybe not too much) when the BTC price goes up in extreme amounts in short periods of time.

It seems to me that the longer that any of us are employing the tactics of BTC accumulation under whatever system that we have established for ourselves, the more clear it may well become for us to figure out ways to tailor our own strategies and approach to account for our gained experiences and to attempt to be measured (rather than emotional) in the ways that we go forward whether we choose to continue BTC accumulation on our same path or if we might believe it a good way forward to tweak our approach in any kind of significant way.

There is no one right answer.. even if we might plot out on paper (or on an Excel spreadsheet) that we could do x, y or z and we can project out how those various courses of action (or different paths) might play out for the various possible directions of the BTC price. If we have an Excel spreadsheet we can duplicate the tabs and then change a few variables within or even set up the Excel spreadsheet in a way that we change one reference box, such as projected percentage of price change, changes in new allocation/buy amounts over time or even changes in the timeline - though I usually like to preestablish the timeline, but sometimes there could be reasons to attempt to assess based on weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly or multiple years, and sometimes more details can be helpful and other times more details might get in the way - depending on what you might be trying to assess.

In essence, there seem to be ways to attempt to plot out our own possible course of action that contributes to our having some steady plans in which we already know at which points we might change our plan.. or if we plan to ONLY reassess at various points.. so there may be ways that we lock ourselves into a plan but also have various points that we might have pre-authorized ourselves to reassess, and none of our locking in prohibits us from totally changing the plan at any time that we would like or reassessing at a point other than we had determined previously, yet frequently if we establish a plan and then we consider a variety of circumstances and justifications for our plan, we may well realize that some new information might have caused us to reconsider, but that the changes in circumstances are not sufficiently strong enough to motivate us to change the plan in any kind of meaningful way.. or maybe the changed circumstances only justify small changes in our approach rather than major changes.

Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 15, 2022, 01:54:53 AM

Quote from: tadamichi on June 12, 2022, 09:02:44 PM

Quote from: Agbe on June 12, 2022, 07:44:48 PM

I was discussing with friends last week and one of them said, trading is like gambling because one can lose all the Investment in the process of trading and also gain in the process of trading and I also see reason on the discussion, because trading also used prediction as gambling. I Know that they are not the same but in reasoning they are synonymous.

It’s just gambling if you don’t know what you’re doing and acting blindly. Acquiring shares of companies or something like gold, silver has nothing to do with gambling, capital needs to be allocated where value is created, for an economy to function.

I will supplement by asserting that there is value in the fact that people make different choices in terms of how much value they want to allocate into a variety of differing kinds of asset classes - and for differing reasons. If you consider your investment into bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar in similar kinds of ways that gold and silver used to be a hedge against the dollar, you might consider that in accordance with Gresham's law, bitcoin is likely going to suck away most if not all of the monetary value of gold and silver.. and maybe there might be some be some Armageddon-like fringe scenarios in which it would have been good to have some gold and/or silver.. but in some sense bitcoin is likely 1,000x-ish better than gold already.. so is there any reason to have both.. or maybe 1% gold and 99% bitcoin.. might be a possible way of allocating that portion of your hedging against the dollar aspect of your investment portfolio, perhaps?

I actually thought about this too that getting a small amount of gold can make a whole lot of sense. Since Bitcoin will be volatile for quite some time, there could alway be some cases where we need some kind of unexpected emergency money in the moment. And then gold is perfect, because of the stability it offers.

I personally consider that BTC serves as a hedge against to the dollar in a similar way that gold had done historically, so I believe that gold is not necessary, and I mentioned it as an example of a kind of extreme preparation that someone might do for an edge preparation in order to attempt to make the point that if your extreme case for using gold is not very likely then you should not be being very much of it.
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I will concede that there might be places in the world in which it is easy to get in and out of gold, but why not just use dollars for that? If you are already in the practice of using gold then maybe you find it to be sufficiently liquid.. and not without other of its own various problems including its pretty long historical manipulation and then some variations in how to divide it or verify it and how many shop s take it (again there might be regional differences).. My gut reaction is to just say "fuck gold", but I can see why some folks might be somewhat comfortable hedging with it, if they are used to it and if they believe some of their liquidation avenues are not going to dry up at the points when they might be needed.

In regards to bitcoins volatility or potentially being forced to sell at the bottom, there are ways to attempt to prepare for that just with a BTC/USD pair.. but of course you should attempt to customize in ways that make you comfortable, too.. also depending on what stage you are in regarding accumulation, maintenance or liquidation.

Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

Just like rn if someone would need money unexpectedly it would be a terrible time to sell Bitcoin. We dont have the luxury to choose yet, when to get some money out of Bitcoin, while not making big losses.

If you have a cashflow that comes in dollars, then you choose how much BTC to buy on a regular basis, and hopefully you have projected out your expenses, so you have your cashflow in order, so you never have to sell BTC that is at a time that is other than your own choosing. If your timeline has also been projected out to be 4-10 and years or more, then why do you give any shits if the BTC price has dipped, except that such dips allows you to accumulate more.. because hopefully you are not overinvesting and relying upon BTC for your regular liquidity.. if you are no longer in accumulation stage and you reached either maintenance stage or liquidation stage, then surely your calculations would be different. but hopefully if you are in liquidation stage you are planning ahead too and you are in sufficient profits by then that you are not getting caught in short-term pickles regarding your cashflow concerns.

Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

With gold this doesnt really matter, its always pretty stable compared to other assets.

Fuck gold. I do not really get distracted into gold discussions.. even if in your region it might be liquid.. it does not seem to be very liquid in a lot of places and has other issues.. so I consider it as mostly a distraction to overall bigger issue (rather than edge case) points that I am wanting to discuss here.

Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

So we could sell it easily and buy it back later. Also Gold is terrible to store in large quantities so something like 1% could give the portfolio some nice extra capabilities.

I don't consider gold to be helpful for most people in most situations.. . so yeah try moving around $100k value in gold, storing it, verifying it, securing it from govts or private actors and other issues. Fuck gold.

Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 15, 2022, 01:54:53 AM

I will supplement by asserting that there is value in the fact that people make different choices in terms of how much value they want to allocate into a variety of differing kinds of asset classes - and for differing reasons.

Yup theres also another a big factor investing plays for the economy, even tho i see how the whole system has become like a casino now. But if we go back to sane economics one day -> Businesses need liquidity, consumers need money.

How come I am starting to feel that I am getting distracted into off-topic considerations?

If you are having some considerations regarding how liquid you are - then you you should be able to manage those kinds of considerations and figure out how much you want to allocate to bitcoin - which may well change over time.. so if you are building your BTC portfolio and you are also building a business or several businesses, then those kinds of competing considerations are going to create demands on your cashflow and maybe you are ONLY able to invest smaller amounts into bitcoin because you have some other goals and projects that are taking away from your cashflow abilities to buy bitcoin.. so I am not even suggesting to be fucking around considering using BTC as a kind of float for yuour business whil you are still in the BTC accumulation stages; however sure once you reach maintenance or liquidation stages, then you whld have already figured out ways to use btc as a float for businesses in those stages.

In other words, I am not suggesting getting in and out of bitcoin while in BTC accumulating stages.. and surely many folks are stuck in BTC accumulation stages for a long time before they even get to maintenance or liquidation stages/ concerns... or at least that is the approach that I believe that I am suggesting through the various angles and topics of this thread.. It seems to me that if you get through achieving your BTC accumulation target levels, then it may well become more clear regarding how to start to employing maintenance and liquidation strategies, but I doubt it is good for me to assume that you (tadamichi) have even reached accumulation goals in btc yet, right?

Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

Doing sane investments could be a win win situation for both. If consumers invested into companies theyre customersou have these kinds of considerations, the of themselves for example. The business could scale up their operations more, and the consumer gets more money to spend. But this can also go bad, if people are bad at investing and this will likely be the case. Forcing everyone to invest is probably always a bad idea for society as a whole.

If I understand what you are saying, then surely there is a lot of variance in companies and there is a lot of centralized points of failure, and I am not really very clear about how you get to the "force to invest" angle, unless you are talking about governmental bailouts of companies and banks when they fuck up.

Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

A hard money like Bitcoin could in theory work as an inbuilt savings mechanism for everyone(slight deflation trough lost coins), and serve people better, because they dont need to go to third parties to see their money grow, it just happens automatically and is distributed to everyone equally. Altough this still needs to be confirmed in practice.

We might be considering these kinds of potential benefits of bitcoin to society differently too. I consider bitcoin to benefit society as a whole because it brings fair accounting and disincentivizes debasing the money through printing, so those kinds of benefits are distributed to everyone.. but bitcoins themselves are not distributed to everyone except that anyone can buy bitcoin and even in small fragments, and at the same time, the earlier actors are going to be able to buy more bitcoin at a lower price than the those who come to bitcoin later. though everyone will still benefit from the fair system. even though there is some advantages towards becoming aware of the bitcoin phenomena earlier and taking actions to start to accumulate it earlier.. because satoshis are quite likely to continue to get more and more expensive with the pasage of time..

bitcoin is designed to pump forever, but likely the volatility (including the exponential growth upwards hockey stick portion of the s-curve) is going to continue to go down in percentages the more and more of the worlds population gets into bitcoin and as more and more of the world's monetary value continues to flow into bitcoin.

Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

Right now were in a bad situation for everyone, because fiat keeps devaluing so much, that it forces everyone to either spend their money fast or invest it. Now we have an education system that refuses to teach financial literacy, and we see a growing gap between poor and rich. We have one part of the population that can play this game perfectly and the other part is forced to get into something they were never prepared for. Its obvious who will win.

Sure. I agree with all of this. There are some segments of society who disproportionately advantage from the various current unfairnesses that are built into the overall debt and money printing system, and even though the whole society is going to advantage from having more money, those who are receiving disproportionate benefits will perceive themselves to be losing from the new fair system and are likely to fight the new system more.. even though probably if push comes to shove, they do not really have any solid argument against the new system except that they had been getting disproportionate advocates to the old system.. They can still advantage from the new system, if they reallocate into bitcoin, but they will probably fight for a decent amount of time before reallocating into bitcoin... but everyone is likely going to be forced to reallocate into bitcoin sooner or later, even i f it could take 50-200 years to play out.

Quote from: tadamichi on June 15, 2022, 09:59:41 AM

And why i said bad for everyone, because this tanks the economy in the process, a healthy society needs to balance itself out. If no more care is taken of poor/ workers then the system cant work out in the long run(even tho they try to keep it alive artificially) and wealth wont matter much anymore. Loose- Loose for everyone. But at the same time a system that vilifies wealthy people, will have all their prosperity run away and end in poverty for everyone. There needs to be a healthy balance between the two, smh like someone is testing us.

The world needs sound money asap.

Well it does surely seem that bitcoin provides for more potential sustainability in the future and it is already here in the present and spreading some of its ongoing benefits and love (in a neutral way) to the world already and has been doing so for more than 13 years, even though its circle of adoptions and potential adoption was quite small in the first few years.

So yeah bitcoin seems to provide quite strong potential for peaceful transition to incentivize fewer monetary-related injustices. I doubt that bitcoin is going to resolve all injustices, and maybe not even resolve all monetary-related injustices, but surely it seems to be a step in the right direction that happens to be quite ingenuous at the same time. In other words, it seems quite amazing that the ongoing potential for increasing and advancing sound and fair money exists and also allows for potential for ongoing peaceful further transition into such system of increased adoption and increased usage too (it has already happened, continues to happen and likely will continue to happen, too... if you know the Ron Paul meme "it's happening".. hahahahaha.. it is already happening.. hahahaha);.. So for sure it seems that bitcoin makes better incentives in the world around money matters.