Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Almost every little 'bobblehead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.
So true. I'd be neutral right now about a return to $25K-$30K vs a drop to $10K-$15K, but there is too much confidence that price is going to already drop significantly lower. Baring in mind since 2021 approximately 50% of holders were new to Bitcoin in the past year, so a lot of the twitter sentiment comes from newbies to put it simply. That fact that by comparison WO readers think the bottom is in is no surprise to me.
Also, I don't think the 200-Week MA is "dead". Not yet anyway. Just visit the link, or see the attached screenshot. It has been crossed, but only barely, which has happened a few times in the past. If the price picks up from here, it will just be another deep blue dot touching the 200-WMA on the chart. It all depends on where the price goes next. And even if a deep and long dip eventually "kills" it, it doesn't mean much, really. MA indicators do not contain some high-level intelligence that can tell us something very useful when breached. They are just averages of price data.
JMHO.
JMHO.
I forgot this graph only shows the dots each month, as opposed to each week. If anything it'd make more sense to look at the 50 Month MA (~217 Weeks) if we're looking at monthly changes. Also because Bitcoin has never closed below this Monthly MA, as opposed to 200WMA which price has closed below numerous times (repeatedly in 2015 for example). Personally I'm keeping my eye on the 50 Month MA @ $21.3K as price has already flirted with this level a few times in the past week. I also don't think a close below it would be catastrophic, as long as it's within around 5% of it, ie >$20K. Only one more day to go though...
Surely one of the problems with opening and closing candles/dots is still that they are somewhat random (or connected with a thing in the world that people like to watch), and you are referring to closings that are based on monthlies within a calendar year reference point, and why go based on monthly calendar year rather than some random 30-day period or maybe the middle of the month or 2/3 into the month or some other way to measure "monthly" opening and closing without connecting it with calendar year monthly cut offs?
But I never sock-puppet. Those who keep throwing around the term “sock-puppet” do not know what it means.
I like to aspire to use the term sock-puppet merely because I can appreciate that it annoys you... .. and there is nothing unfairly inaccurate about the use of a term that another peep does not like even if you personally want to proclaim something like: "technically a sock puppet is x, y and z, but I am not x, y and z. I am x, y and k (and specifically I am not z)" which to me such posture is like a so fucking what?.. even if you might be "technically" correct.
In other news....... I now see it increasingly more likely that this war in Ukraine, escalates... and moves beyond Ukraine's borders..... which is not good news for anyone.
Russia/Ukraine is not the only consideration, but it is one which I am taking into account, when I am considering upping sticks and getting the hell away from London/UK/Europe for a while....I mean, it was part of my plan already to get away for a bit... but, now.... I am seriously considering making it happen much faster.
I want as little part of it as possible.... that goes for the Russians, the Ukrainians, the NATO countries, the USA the lot of it. It is all fucking psychos in suits, playing psycho games, and they could not give flying fuck about me....not the Russians, not the Ukrainians, not the EU and not the UK, and I do not expect them to care about lil ol me and my family and loved ones, that is MY job.
Fuck the lot of them.... I want to get as far away as possible from the whole thing, as far as that is possible in this day and age.
Currently, the world is pretty damned interconnected, and I cannot imagine such interconnectedness diminish in large ways.. even though sure there are somewhat edge-case scenarios for such.
It seems to me that you are likely going to have difficulties getting away from dick-swinging macro-political nonsenses completely, but I do agree that there are probably some parts of the world that are more self-sovereign and try to stay some what neutral and detached.. even though the future remains a wee bit uncertain in terms of allegiances in the future and if you still might get sucked back into hearing about it, taking sides or in other ways being materially affected in various ways.