Quote from: death_wish on June 30, 2022, 09:55:05 AM

Gambler’s Fallacy

Quote from: death_wish on June 30, 2022, 04:04:58 AM

Quote from: death_wish on June 20, 2022, 08:40:39 AM

Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 30, 2022, 07:58:21 AM

I still like my rendition, even though D_W established that "technically" my framing is not accurate. I still like it.. because it is fun.. tick tock next block.

It is classic Gambler’s Fallacy.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety. The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy: A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.

We win by creating an impression in which things are working in bitcoin, and the details do not matter, and we do not need to know the details because we win no matter what... as long as the blocks come out and on average they are 10 minutes... every two weeks the difficulty adjusts in order to shoot for such 10 minutes per block on average time target goal too.

Winner winner chicken dinner.

Yeah.. maybe it matters for a miner.. or someone in a hurry transacting a $1million transaction.. but most people only need to know that it works.. an d it continues to work.

When is the next block? Approximately 10 miutes.. give or take.. if it encs up bing 2 minutes or 20 minutes, and even skewed towards two minutes, I give few shits, I am still going to answer in the same way..

If I were betting. I might give a shit.. but I am not.. my only bet is that bitcoin works, continues to work and it has been working for more than 13.5 years. tick tock.. next block.. amazing!!!! when's it coming? I don't know.. but maybe in 10 minutes-ish. I am not setting expectations too high, either when I say.. that the next block is coming in about 10 minutes.. and if 10 minutes runs again and there is no block, and the person waiting for the block asks me when is the next block going to come, I will say, it should be here in about 10 minutes.

It's a great answer.

Quote from: death_wish on June 30, 2022, 09:55:05 AM

Don’t forget that Bitcoin’s mining algorithm is a giant lottery—and that on the flipside, many Provably Fair crypto-casinos use SHA2 to roll virtual dice. Waving hands over some important technical differences, it is useful to keep that in mind.

In practice, although they are discrete and not continuous processes, games of chance that pick winners based on a uniform distribution can be usefully modelled as Poisson processes. Wins accordingly have a statistically “expected” arrival time based on the average of an exponential distribution—just like Bitcoin’s 10-minute target for blocktimes, a targeted average calculated over numerous blocks.

By this model, the “fastest” quartile of wins feels so lucky that it gets gamblers excited—just like how 25% of Bitcoin blocks arrive within 173 seconds. The median is much faster than the average, which means that fully half of all games feel luckier than they really are. Tell me, how many times have you exclaimed, “Wow, I am so lucky—the confirmation of my tx was much faster than I expected!”?

You seem to be proving my point. Underpromise and over deliver.. another great bitcoin feature.

Quote from: death_wish on June 30, 2022, 09:55:05 AM

The “slowest” quartile of wins then drains the gamblers’ funds as they keep playing, believing themselves “due” for a win. Those are the blocks that seem to take forever, as you are awaiting confirmation. That long tail is long, indeed!

and while they are waiting.. we just keep saying that the block should arrive in 10 minutes. I hpe that you did not bet on this. Sucks to be you if you bet on it.

Quote from: death_wish on June 30, 2022, 09:55:05 AM

The exponential distribution plays games with your head. It defies and exploits human intuitions in almost every possible way. It is a dice site’s best friend.

Maybe some stats textbooks say the same thing. Maybe not. I figured this out myself, many moons ago.

* death_wish loves the exponential distribution.

Have fun with all that. I am just going to continue with the party line. whether it is correct or not.. doesn't matter to me, even though it may well matter to a miner or someone who is working (or betting) in regards to the relevance of those kinds of details.

Quote from: Richy_T on June 30, 2022, 11:40:39 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 30, 2022, 07:58:21 AM

How did Craig frame the matter?

I forget the details but Peter Rizun asked how long (on average) the next block would be if the last one was n minutes ago and he answered with the 10-n option. That had a lot of CSW supporters illustrate the mental gymnastics they were willing to go through.

For sure, he frequently gets caught in really dumb answers.. an/or lame descriptions about what bitcoin is including the seemingly forced "what I designed" it to do. blah blah blah.... including the pursuit of copy right and intellectual property matters..

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on June 30, 2022, 12:32:52 PM

Quote from: hostm on June 30, 2022, 04:58:05 AM

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop! Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down". No too clunky. Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?

I'm thinking that a good name for it would be a "mining death spiral."

You heard it here first. Shocked

#justsaying

Quote from: empowering on June 30, 2022, 12:45:10 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on June 30, 2022, 12:32:52 PM

[edited out]

...death spiral ?

Hey.. either that is not fair, or you were "reading my mind"... by saying to ur lil selfie: "what would jjg think, if he were faced with such a question?"

Cheesy

Quote from: ImThour on June 30, 2022, 12:50:59 PM

If Bitcoin were the only Cryptocurrency:

1 BTC would have a price of $158,448.86 at a $3 Trillion Total Crypto Market cap.

$44,042.79 per BTC at the current Total Crypto Market cap of $840 billion.

Interesting, isn't it?

No.

Quote from: savetherainforest on June 30, 2022, 01:38:09 PM

WE GET A 30% discount from the 70% Discount !!! That is a 210% VALUE !!! YOU LOSE MONEY IF YOU DON't BUY AT $16K at least.

WOW!!!!

BBBBBbbbbaaaaaammmmmmmbbbbbb!!!!

That's how it works?

No wonder you have tendencies to find "bargains" in so many unique places. Shocked

Who would-a-thunk?