Quote from: Betwrong on Today at 09:42:30 AM

Quote from: franky1 on June 28, 2022, 12:01:04 PM

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its about finding the ultimate bottom.. the actual bottom cost they refuse and impossible to sell below.. . concentrating on the low/bottom
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Alright, first off, Thank you for taking time to explain all of it with such thoroughness.

there are alot of stuff to go through..
its best people find their view by doing their own math and not get spoon fed, as it ALWAYS leads to "this guy said this and i trusted him" not realising that if some metric is too widely used/known. the markets and the hashrate use it too and react to it. thus causing a change to the numbers.

EG if you mention bottom was $30k 5 months ago(price was $42k). 'shorters' would play on that. by selling coin at 42 to short:buy in at that near $30k level. thus become the cause that it goes to that level by doing the short:sell causing a sell off event..

EG if 5 months ago someone said $30k was bottom. innefficient miners would react, either by dropping out unable to get that low continually mining, where the drop out causes more reward for the remaining efficient miners meaning more profit=less cost for those remaining. thus dipping the value down.. or swap their inefficient asics out for efficient asics and start competing with the miners already at more efficient rating. causing the efficient miners to then get less reward as there is more competition..

so as you can see. it becomes a game of chasing the bottom. where for every winner is a loser.

for a loose (not all factors included) idea of a value window. not to predict where the PRICE might bottom out to.. but to see where value is in regards to value or premium. of a value window currently

just find the most efficient asics on the planet(electric per hashrate) and also the cheapest asic where you divide the hardware cost over a couple years. and then down to a block (couple years to 1 block is about 105000. then divide that down to a coin/6.25 to get the per coin cost per asic

use the network hashrate to see how many asics are typically running to both calculate the hardware cost combined per coin reward time
and then calculate the electric usage and get to a per coin time and then use the cheapest electric prices.. add together these and you have your cost per coin

i have a few other indicators that affect this but i think if its all shouted out and everyone forms judgement on one metric. that in itself just then affects the metric. and causes a change to the value.

so work it out for yourself and make judgements on other factors that can increase its accuracy, and note that it can shift if the other factors in play react