Quote from: aminorex on April 03, 2014, 06:26:31 AM

Quote from: AnonyMint on April 03, 2014, 05:12:55 AM

I don't know what a cascade model is? Care to summarize the significance or am I left to my own googling?

Informal language referring to self-organized criticality, as e.g. the Gutenberg-Richter law. The seminal reference is Bak,Tang,Wiesenfeld (1987).

Now I will give you some insight into how I merge or generalize cross disciplines. People ask me to give them a list of books I read. I don't. I just think about things and read research papers sometimes, etc..

I believe this can also be related conceptually (and probably also analytically) to Taleb's Antifragility.

I only skimmed these references yet it appears what this is generatively saying is it is infinitely costly to have infinite disorder (i.e. perfectly equiprobable systems or infinite degrees-of-freedom), and we express such relationships asymptotically. Actually I have explored this independently at my blog (and also my work on computer language type theory, or let's just say semantics) wherein I have reasoned that for anything to exist, infinity can't be observed.

I believe this is an overly broad concept (yeah long-tails happen, so what?) to use to use as a rationale against a much more well supported specific theory that I promulgated about Bitcoin's adoption fitting a log-logistic rate of adoption.

Quote from: liexel on April 03, 2014, 09:12:24 AM

hi, i just have one question. i dont mind the mid term bleeding etc.. sorry to be asking the obvious whats its like for the long term, > 1 year, is it going to recover? i just need to know that i can keep holding.

Absolutely. The chances of it not are astronomically small.

The issue I am raising is the rate of growth going forward is probably not as high as what Risto has been promulgating. I am seeing something on the order of $4000 - $10,000 by the end of 2015. $100,000 is mostly fantasy with about the same probability as Bitcoin going to $50. $100,000 is more probable than Bitcoin going to $10 and never recovering, but that isn't saying much.