Quote from: gallianooo on Today at 12:09:40 PM

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 12:26:53 AM

Quote from: gallianooo on Today at 12:06:09 AM

Quote from: ivomm on July 03, 2022, 08:35:01 AM

Quote from: Biodom on July 03, 2022, 01:52:26 AM

lower bottom or not, I think of a major bounce in the next 2-8 wk, maybe even into September.
SP500 to 4300 (at least)
btc to above 28-29K (at least)
next couple of days are less clear, though.

This bear market is different and even more unpredictable than usual. For the moment it looks like any 5% increase is followed by a 15% drop. Nothing has changed since the last ATH. And this can only be explained by a massive BTCictoin spending as collateral to avoid liquidation and insolvency. Nobody knows if in the next days another fund will explode with 10K+ BTCitcoins on fire sell. For that reason most of the investors either lost interest or wait at the sidelines for the dust to settle. The so called institutional investors are hard to attract and even harder to keep when the price is 50%+ below their purchase price. Even if there is a disbelief rally to 35K+ in the coming weeks, the remaining institutional investors will sell at break even and some of the hodlers will sell something, knowing that a revisit to 20K is to be expected. If the pattern of the previous cycles is kept, the average price will gradually increase to 3x from the bottom until the end of 2024. Examples: 10K->30K, 15K->45K, 17.5->52.5K. And if there is a new ATH in 2025, it might be around only 2x from the last, i.e. 140K. This is what I think, but I might be awfully wrong in both directions, like sub 10K bottom and no new ATH in 2025, or the other extreme - a new ATH beyond 300K.

Based of the previous cycle, the increase from the bottom was 3K end of 2018 till 14K in june 2019, so almost x5 not x3.

yes, but (14/3.1)X 17.6 would be 79.5, an ATH, while in 2019 we went to roughly 70% of prior ATH.
70% of 67566 is 47.3K, a very possible number that already figured multiple times in prior discussions.
I just don't want to talk about it as a high probability target mid term. If we get there, it would be awesome, sure.

So 69k -> 17.6K -> 47K -> final bottom 9/10K -> new ATH 140K ? Roll Eyes

Or 69 to 17.6 to 47 to 21.5K, then to 175K.
21.% is based on 3.8K/3.1K prior double bottom ratio.
175K is based on roughly 10X from the bottom (it would be 140k if we bottom there).
rational: we seem to have diminishing series of % growth from the bottom. last one was roughly 22X and the numbers before were 113X and 580X (in reverse order).
Of course, 10X is optimistic.
The exact series would suggest just ~4.4X, but then it would be "just" 77.5K.
I dismiss that (4.4X) because I think that "natural" progression of btc was affected downwards by the chinese move, hence next cycle might compensate upwards.