Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on Today at 10:02:43 AM

Quote from: ivomm on Today at 07:58:12 AM

…..the price will move something like this in the next 2.5 years: 17.5K->35K->20K->25K->15K (the last bottom might be around 12K or lower)->20K->30K->20K->42K. And then hopefully some good news will boost the next 2025 bull run to a brief last ATH in the 168K area.

Not sure about a brief last ATH but this is exactly where I think the price direction will go in the next 3 years.

Well, to give some benefit of the doubt to ivomm, blow-off tops tend to be brief, and for some reason ivomm is coming off as more bearish than usual. So if he is suggesting that there is going to be a blow off top in the $168k area, that might be reasonable to consider the blow off top to be brief because that tends to be the nature of blow off tops.

No problem with Ivomm being conservative if that is what he wants to be (or feels to be the right BTC dynamics call from his perspective), and for sure I am way more whimpy in terms of any top that I might consider to be feasible and.or reasonable, and I tend to contemplate price ranges, and I am not even sure that my earlier calls from December 16 that go up to $1.5 million are off the table, even though for sure the timeline will need to be adjusted.. and sure at some point I may well need to rethink the specific assignment of prices, ranges and percentages.

It is not easy to attempt to figure out what the momentum might be and at what point the momentum might be deemed as changed. So then coming up with a meaningful price range for UP may well be easier to lock in once the DOWN seems to be over, and then the level of UP (such as $168k, $250k or some other number) surely could depend on how we get there in terms of time and distance travelled (the upwards spurts are somewhat steep or flat? I am not going to presume to know in advance whether we might be flat or steep because either is possible, even though we are kind of used to steep that comes at certain points in time towards the end of cycles such as a blow off top.. but sometimes we experience flat too that might cause us to believe that a blow off top has not yet happened.

If all of us attempt to work with a presumption of around a 3-year timeline for the next blow-off top, then a whole hell of a lot of shit could happen between now and then, and surely I am a wee bit nervous, even as I type this post to be attempting to presume that such a top (blow-off or otherwise) might happen around 3 years from now.. .. but for sure, I am not against the framework and even some of your (LFC) somewhat seemingly rigid use of the four-year fractal framework for ballparking the likely timing of the top (whether blow-off or not).

On a personal level, I am tentatively considering that any meaningful reversal from such a violent bottom, such as $17,953 has about a minimum turn around time-frame of 5 months, so maybe a minimum of 2-3 months to get back into ATH territories $69k from there... so even though I am not opposed to your overall framework, I hate to attempt to call more than one leg at a time.. so I guess my point is that if we were to happen to have our bottom in, then the best that we might be able to attempt to be revisiting ATHs of $69k would be around 7-8 months from the mid-June bottom of $17,953.. and of course, I am even nervous about saying that because momentum can sometimes be a bitch and escalate way more quickly than expected, in spite my attempt to contemplate 7-8 months as a kind of reasonable base case minimum.

Quote from: ivomm on Today at 03:43:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:38:49 PM

Quote from: ivomm on Today at 07:58:12 AM

Finally, after 8 months of waiting we have a dead cat bounce! And all this because of the "good news" of some ponzis paying fiat debt and getting back their BTC collateral. Once again the market is irrational. These ponzis are specialized at coordinated BTC shorting to give the clients the proper yield in BTC. My guess is that they will wait for the cat to stall somewhere in the 26K-35K range, to resume the shorting.

The real question is will this bear market finish until the next halving or this time it will be different. I don't know how much BTC collateral all these ponzis have in total, but it seems enough to defend any short position even if there are not many BTC left on the spot exchanges. All this is of course just a speculation for the future, but it's been a 100% reality in the last 8 months. In this case the price will move something like this in the next 2.5 years: 17.5K->35K->20K->25K->15K (the last bottom might be around 12K or lower)->20K->30K->20K->42K. And then hopefully some good news will boost the next 2025 bull run to a brief last ATH in the 168K area (just a SOMA number like every other). This is the optimistic version. I don't want to speculate what will happen if these ponzis hold the price below the last ATH in 2025. It would be very dissapointing indeed.

===

The simple answer for all remarks is that I just translated the bear market 2018-2020 with the 50-85% oscilations. This seems to me the most likely scenario, but it is equally possible not to go lower than 17.5K if that is you want to hear.

You should know better than that.

I want you to say what you think, and to say why you say that. I am not trying to get you to say what I want because that is not going to help anyone.

Let me see if I can say this moar better.

I already asserted in the post that you redacted that I believe that you have gone into a pretty major and even unjustifiable transformation in your thinking about BTC merely after the BTC price went below $25k, and I stated that my thinking did not change very much merely because of the BTC price going below $25k and even some subsequent negative happenings in the past couple of months, and I doubt that the facts on the ground justify any such major transformation in thinking about BTC and where it might be going in the short to medium term.

Sure, we are getting some pretty serious shit in terms of various kinds of fraud and overleveraging that some third parties were employing - including various ponzi schemes too.. and so many of them overlap.. yes.. I see that, and we found out about a lot of them after the Tera Luna bullshit around mid-May.. but we continued to find out about more and more frauds and ponzi schemes happening with other people's money.. Did we not think that some of these things were happening? They just got caught, no? Caught with their pants down... some of them, and not all of them, yet.

Quote from: ivomm on Today at 03:43:51 PM

However, the ponzi chain of known and unknown companies shorting tens of thousands BTC is something we didn't have before. And this should be kept in mind and not to be so sure about PlanB or similar simple demand-supply predictions. Grin

I don't know if some of this stuff that we are finding out is as new as you are making it out to be, and PlanB is only part of the up thesis. I doubt that any of us who have any brains believe that something like the PlanB model guarantees future performance. So I am sorry if your previous view of bitcoin might have been overly reliant upon that coming true. Of course, we have other ideas about bitcoin's anticipated price dynamics besides PlanB's model including ongoing exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects.

Sure you can come to different conclusions in regards to how much weight to give to various factors and models, and there are no ways that I am suggesting to ignore facts on the ground and/or logical conclusions from some of the facts that we know or that we believe to be the case, and also we are likely to come to differing conclusions regarding how we might believe the various factors affect possible BTC price dynamics, short, medium and/or long term. No problema that we might see some facts differently and weigh them differently.