Quote from: K128kevin on April 05, 2014, 01:30:41 AM

Quote from: twiifm on April 05, 2014, 12:46:02 AM

If you claim you can predict then why is BTC not $500?

This is like if a sharpshooter claims that they are pretty good and you ask them "If you are pretty good, then why can't you hit a mosquito's left eyeball from 2,000 meters away with a blindfold on?"

It's not perfect, as I've said many, many times. It is sometimes wrong, which is why it readjusts its predictions every hour. If you read the older posts you would have seen that it readjusted its prediction one hour after I posted this, saying that it would not reach $500. The neural network successfully predicted a pretty significant rise in price.

It doesn't have to be 100% perfect. I was arguing against the ridiculous claim that it is literally impossible to predict bitcoin prices. I'll give you that it's impossible to predict bitcoin prices 100% correctly 100% of the time, but it's very possible to predict them correctly within a reasonable margin of error the majority of the time. This is better than most (probably any, actually) humans could do.

I'm saying its impossible to mathematically model markets because they are based on human interactions which are totally unpredictable.

The one thing I find "predictable" is that implied volatility reverts to mean. Not really a prediction. Just that statistically speaking, volatility is mean reverting (not prices)

How are you predicting price? What is your model based on?