Quote from: K128kevin on April 05, 2014, 05:01:59 AM

Quote from: twiifm on April 05, 2014, 01:51:55 AM

I'm saying its impossible to mathematically model markets because they are based on human interactions which are totally unpredictable.

The one thing I find "predictable" is that implied volatility reverts to mean. Not really a prediction. Just that statistically speaking, volatility is mean reverting (not prices)

How are you predicting price? What is your model based on?

The thing that you have to understand is that just because we, as humans, can't see predictable patterns in a set of data doesn't mean that they aren't there. Neural networks are REALLY good at finding patterns that humans cannot see. The first time I ever implemented a neural network was to recognize hand-written digits. It was able to correctly classify some hand written digits that were written so poorly that I, a human, could not tell for sure if they were one digit or another.

Human behavior is not totally unpredictable. Especially given large numbers of humans. This is besides the point though. The actual cause of price fluctuations is completely irrelevant actually. My computational model has no idea what is causing prices to change because it doesn't matter at all. All that matters is that there are repetitive patterns in the data (which there are). The neural network learns these patterns, and is able to use them to accurately predict bitcoin prices.

You can say you don't believe that bitcoin prices can be mathematically modeled, but it is still true - it's exactly what I'm doing (relatively successfully) here.

Human behavior predictable at the extreme. I agree on that. Large spikes always follow by selloff. But without extremes its random.

I trade every day and I watch tick for tick on some stocks I trade. Yes there are patterns but the pattern presents itself after each candle is drawn. Theres always a lag that makes it useless as a predictor.

I love trading breakout patterns. Breakouts occur after consolidation. But I don't know direction of breakout or to what price.

Its not that I don't believe you. I've never met anyone who claim they can predict next days price.

I hope you become filthy rich and teach me your system