Quote from: ujka on April 05, 2014, 01:26:53 PM

Quote from: Darkstone2 on April 05, 2014, 12:20:06 PM

Quote from: E f f e c T on April 05, 2014, 12:07:27 PM

You have done nothing apart from draw a big X on a picture of the old projections, And a share price of 0.0094? When?

Read again:

Quote

These calcuations are done with 20% hashrate increment each time.

That is the only change i made to the document.

The share price is 0.0094 since that is the sum of all future, positive, dividends. In about a month or 3 the dividends will turn negative at which point the hardware should just be liquidated.

I'd appreciate any comments on how flawed PetaMine's forecast document is. Because it seems pretty solid to me. And everybody seems to rather insult me than providing actual feedback. The only feedback i have heard so far that was not covered with multiple insults was that it is unrealistic to expect an continued network growth of 20%. Something that turned out to be quite realistic.

Januar 2015 with 11'700'000 TH. How much electricity is needed to run this? With chips at 28nm technology using ~1J/GH?

Bitcoin has to be at $8000 by then, just to cover electricity cost.(at $0.1 per kwh)

I don't need mining then, I'll go now and buy 1BTC, and I'm good. For life! (with constant 80% increase/month, bitcoin HAS to be over $2'000'000 in 2015, even with new chips 0.3J/GH)

And power used - around 4'000 GW. What capacity are nuclear plants? 1GW? Ah, just 4'000 nuclear power plants for bitcoin network. No problem.

Oh, no, what wikianswers says - there are only 439 nuclear reactors in the world?

Excellent calculations, and I love the comparison to nuclear power plants, it makes an interesting argument as to how we will keep up with the difficulty rises.

But I must say, for the next month or two we will see huge increases in difficulty as

1) a new bubble begins to form and more people invest in bitcoin mining technology
2) the release of third gen chips causes manufacturing costs to plummet
3) increasing numbers of manufactures, including the Chinese, flood the market with cheaper and more efficient hashing equipment

But yes, in the long term, 4 months+, the difficulty can't carry on increasing at the rate it is now

And also, a projection of $8000 by january isn't far fetched, some would even argue undervalued. Remember, bitcoin wasn't even a tenth of what it was a year ago, and that's even with the price fall over the past three months. It all depends on how the US gov decides to regulate