Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 26, 2022, 03:45:43 PM

Quote from: dragonvslinux on August 25, 2022, 02:46:35 PM

This has only happened twice before (2015 & 2019), so could easily be considered to have co-incidentally reversed price as opposed to being an established pattern

But TA has like 100 years. There is no need to invent new indicators that worked or did not work last 2 times for bitcoin (most likely small sample error). There are indicators that work f.e. 60% times for all assets

This isn't inventing new indicators, using the 50 & 100 Week MAs has been done for over 100 years! It's been known as a popular enough bearish cross-over.

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on August 26, 2022, 03:45:43 PM

And when we are talking about moving averages. The most popular is golden cross and dead cross which is 50 day crossing 200 day. Not 50 week crossing 100 week. In fact its hard to find probability of success of this indicator on big sample (f.e stocks in last 100 years). Even if I'm wrong and 50 WMA crossing 100 WMA is a well known and well described indicator with known probability than the fact that it wasn't successful here in crypto last two times means nothing.

This is precisely why I'm questioning whether it's a bull trap. Because while it's a well known fact that these two MAs crossing bearish is bearish across asset classes, twice before it has been a bear trap. Obviously this doesn't mean it will be a bear trap again, but clearly it doesn't mean it's more likely t be bearish either, when twice before this hasn't been the case, in fact the complete opposite.

If it wasn't obvious, you can take any example of long-term MAs (whether on Daily or Weekly time-frame) and their crosses reflect bullish or bearish price structure, regardless of the MA value.