Quote from: K128kevin on April 05, 2014, 04:11:54 PM

Quote from: twiifm on April 05, 2014, 03:26:58 PM

Describe what you are doing and ill tell you if human is better or not. HFT does not predict. HFT front run orders and capture the spread. It can do this better humans cause it can do it faster.

But humans program it to do this.

I dont know if a machine can find patterns better than humans. Give me a real world example

Let's do a test. We guess the open close price each day of S&P for next 10 days. If you're right you get a point. Whoever scores the most point wins. Just an experiment to see if your algo can guess the price better than me.

At market close you have to guess the open price. At open you guess the closing price. Your allowed to be off by +/- 50c

I'm sorry but I'm not going to bother trying to get my software to predict S&P right now because I have a ton of other work to do. If you want to test accuracy, you should just make your own bitcoin price predictions and test their accuracy compared to my charts on this website.

If you want to know how it works look up artificial neural networks on Google. This isn't some simple process that I can explain to you in one post. It's a very complex computational model that people have been developing and researching since the 1940s. You could teach multiple college courses just on neural networks alone. To be honest, it seems like you are refuting 70 years worth of research based on your gut feeling that humans would be better at this - and if we're going to be realistic, computers are better than humans at nearly all tasks involving any type of computation. They're surpassing us quickly in other realms as well. They have been able to beat us in chess for a long time now, they can beat us in almost any other game, and they can even drive cars better than us now. Is it so hard to believe that they can predict stock prices better than us?

Thats not what I said at all. I said markets are random so its impossible to predict them. They are by nature unpredictable. If you think you can predict future prices youd be a billionaire by now. Just put all capital into options and you can double it every day

I was just curious if your software was a good trader. Thats why I offered the challenge. Maybe the chaellenge should be human and computer starting w same amount of money and see who makes more after a certain period.

Its a cop out if you can't explain what you are doing to predict these prices. Telling me to google neural networks doesn't make you know future prices more than me. I admit don't know future prices.