Quote from: K128kevin on April 05, 2014, 07:29:44 PM

Quote from: twiifm on April 05, 2014, 07:13:55 PM

I'm sorry but I'm not going to bother trying to get my software to predict S&P right now because I have a ton of other work to do. If you want to test accuracy, you should just make your own bitcoin price predictions and test their accuracy compared to my charts on this website.

If you want to know how it works look up artificial neural networks on Google. This isn't some simple process that I can explain to you in one post. It's a very complex computational model that people have been developing and researching since the 1940s. You could teach multiple college courses just on neural networks alone. To be honest, it seems like you are refuting 70 years worth of research based on your gut feeling that humans would be better at this - and if we're going to be realistic, computers are better than humans at nearly all tasks involving any type of computation. They're surpassing us quickly in other realms as well. They have been able to beat us in chess for a long time now, they can beat us in almost any other game, and they can even drive cars better than us now. Is it so hard to believe that they can predict stock prices better than us?

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Thats not what I said at all. I said markets are random so its impossible to predict them. They are by nature unpredictable. If you think you can predict future prices youd be a billionaire by now. Just put all capital into options and you can double it every day

I was just curious if your software was a good trader. Thats why I offered the challenge. Maybe the chaellenge should be human and computer starting w same amount of money and see who makes more after a certain period.

Its a cop out if you can't explain what you are doing to predict these prices. Telling me to google neural networks doesn't make you know future prices more than me. I admit don't know future prices.

To say that something is, by nature, unpredictable is to say that it is random, which is literally the same as believing in magic. Nothing in the world is random - everything has an observable cause. If something has a cause, then it is not random. If it doesn't, then it is magic. That's what magic means. Maybe we don't have the means or technology to observe something, but it is still theoretically observable. This is besides the point though.

People VASTLY overestimate the power that comes with the ability to accurately predict bitcoin prices MOST of the time. This does not mean you will instantly become rich, or even become rich ever. It means that there is a higher percent chance for you to make some money on the bitcoin market. To think that someone could become a billionaire as an undergrad in college speculating on bitcoin prices is absolutely ridiculous. This isn't a magical get-rich-quick tool and I've expressed this repeatedly to everyone.

To say that I can't explain it in a single post is not a cop out. If you really want to understand it you have to do some research. There are a lot of things in life that can't be explained in a paragraph, and this is one of them. Also it's not my job to explain this to you. I have tons of other things I need to be working on. Asking me to explain to you how neural networks work would be like asking a chemistry professor how chemistry works. Sure, I could give you some brief, vague, high level answer but you still wouldn't fully understand how predictions are made.

Quantum mechanics tells us that things are random. Even if you could chart every particle in the universe, you could not predict everything. Although, you can find likely outcomes. When it comes to predicting the price of bitcoin, it doesn't matter anyway. There are way to many unknown variables.