Banks' technical capabilities might reach global reach (but I very much doubt that too), but they have an insurmountable problem. The governments are going to institute capital controls in order to trap wealth and tax it to death as the global economic implosion proceeds.
This is an extremist point of view, and for you to be right requires financial implosions, which has not happened yet and all things remaining as they are today, Banks will adapt.
I think Bitcoin is most valuable with some global financial chaos, but not too much because then you have war and Bitcoin won't survive real world war. I don't believe in a goldilocks view that we will see the perfect storm of financial chaos to drive Bitcoin adoption, but not so much that world war won't destroy the opportunity.
And I see they have no prayer of supporting the volume of tiny micro payments any time soon (VISA only sales to 6000 txs per second now), nor getting significant penetration into all NICs emerging markets. Here where I am, if someone in the grocery lane is holding a card instead of cash, I run to the next queue because it adds about 5 minutes delay to the transaction.
While micro-payments are interesting, again i would say lets revisit this in 10 years when Bitcoin has viable solutions for the unplugged and unbanked. Bitcoin is 10 years from having a mainstream usable solution to any of this IMHO>
Also I don't assume we can't do transactions better than they can. We have to learn how to play to our decentralized advantage.
Maybe some day we'll "learn", but for now bitcoin is merely a speculative asset. Again I think any txn adoption curves and any talk about taking over global payment systems is not relevant to short term pricing.
The ONLY thing driving short terms pricing is speculation. That is all. I think this will remain the case for at least 5 more years. The most you will see in value on speculation alone is 10k-50k because there will be other opportunities that represent a bigger return than Bitcoin after $10k.
That only changes if bitcoin miraculously navigates the payment minefield and become a true alternative to the credit card, pay pal, and the coin or printed dollar.
I do think it would be miraculous for Bitcoin to evolve its txn ecosystem fast enough to compete with a world that is already responding. How can a distributed organization compete with decisive actions of orgnanized actors in the existing txn world? Distributed systems are great for functioning without central authority but they are terrible at creating killer-app type strategies. You basically have to hope existing systems collapse for Bitcoin to have any chance of ever taking over as a mainstream transaction system.