Quote from: DieJohnny on April 06, 2014, 05:32:50 PM

Quote from: AnonyMint on April 06, 2014, 09:25:37 AM

Banks' technical capabilities might reach global reach (but I very much doubt that too), but they have an insurmountable problem. The governments are going to institute capital controls in order to trap wealth and tax it to death as the global economic implosion proceeds.

This is an extremist point of view, and for you to be right requires financial implosions, which has not happened yet and all things remaining as they are today, Banks will adapt.

Indeed, but I am correct on this one. See all my analysis and data in the Mad Max thread.

The velocity of money V has continued to collapse unabated since 2008. Remember M x V ≈ GDP

The $trillions of QE increases in M (money supply) drove the money to bonds in the developing world due to our ZIRP (too low of interest) to seek better returns, so now the developing world is short the dollar with huge dollar loans amongst the corporations which was used to overbuild condos and other uneconomic infrastructure.

The emerging markets peaked last year and the capital is now exiting and running back to the USA (there are still some diehards who haven't thrown in towel yet, but they will soon). The dollar and NYSE will go skyhigh and the developing world will fall into a spiraling abyss starting 2015. By end of 2015, this will choke off this deadcat bounce in the USA (which is really just international capital flows rushing in, not fundamentals).

All this did was raise the global debt from roughly $150 trillion in 2007 to $223 trillion now (note my figure is "total" debt and the linked article refers to government debt only). Global GDP is only $70 trillion. On top of that $1000+ trillion in derivative bets that sustain the financial system such as pensions. On top of that $1000+ trillion of unfunded social welfare promises from developed nation governments to their constituents.

This will start to crash after Sept 2015 according to Armstrong's computer model. His model has never been wrong. Have you seen all the correct predictions his computer model made. The reason his computer model can do that is because he put $100s of millions of data into it. He was pulling archives from the world's libraries of newspapers, ancient coins, etc.. The computer correlated all the repeating patterns and found out everything moves in cycles that are multiples of Pi = 3.1459. This sounds like nonsense but in fact it is reality!

Armstrong has high-level contacts that have always told him correct information (e.g. he predicted the Ukraine problem many months before anyone else was aware of anything because his computer was pointing him there and he had high level sources to corroborate). I have seen how they give him information that ends up correct. They have said the Fed will not do a QE again when the big crash comes. Instead the plan is to bail-in the deposits, meaning they are going to take all our money. This will be much worse than 2008. This is the big one coming. The Big Portabello Mushroom cloud.

Quote from: DieJohnny on April 06, 2014, 05:32:50 PM

I think Bitcoin is most valuable with some global financial chaos, but not too much because then you have war and Bitcoin won't survive real world war. I don't believe in a goldilocks view that we will see the perfect storm of financial chaos to drive Bitcoin adoption, but not so much that world war won't destroy the opportunity.

War will not likely shut down the internet, because the world's militaries depend on the internet and wouldn't function without it. You don't realize how the world economy would stop if they turned off the internet (even if they could, which I don't think they can). It is embedded in everything now. Turn off the internet, and the people will be in Wash D.C. with pitchforks. Also the government and military depend on the internet as the best data mining technology ever invented. And the HAM radio operators will have a rudimentary internet back up in a few days. Both iPhone and Android are adding mesh networking phone-to-phone over two-way WiFi. It will be impossible to turn off the internet, someone would have to go kill everyone who owns a smart phone. They can't take the internet away (the video is Eric Raymond) from us anymore, we already won that battle.

Bitcoin will not prosper as much as gold and the anonymous coins, because Bitcoin isn't anonymous and the G20 has already announced they will cooperate with the NSA to track down all wealth in all G20 nations. The citations are linked in this quote of myself:

Quote from: AnonyMint on February 08, 2014, 11:18:27 AM

[snip]

Since the Knowledge Age is rising [3], socialism is peaking into an economic collapse soon (maybe to rise even higher in future), thus we headed into a crazy period where the governments will try to fund the $~~150~~223 trillion global debt bubble [4] by hunting down all private capital (G20 announced a database for this today, NSA will contribute and note this is the bankster business model for them to own everything), then as Bitcoin is taken over top-down then the alternative coin with the above features will take over and become the surviving private sector. For this new virtual economy, e.g. downloaded 3D printing designs which we print at home instead of going to store (and 3D printers can print numerous materials on the same object), there are many cases that don't need the consumer protection charge backs. You won't likely be paying a high enough price for a download to justify the hassle of charging it back any way. A 7 billion person market is huge, prices will decrease while profits for individual designers will rise! Prosperity!

[snip]

Quote from: DieJohnny on April 06, 2014, 05:32:50 PM

Quote from: AnonyMint on April 06, 2014, 09:25:37 AM

And I see they have no prayer of supporting the volume of tiny micro payments any time soon (VISA only sales to 6000 txs per second now), nor getting significant penetration into all NICs emerging markets. Here where I am, if someone in the grocery lane is holding a card instead of cash, I run to the next queue because it adds about 5 minutes delay to the transaction.

While micro-payments are interesting, again i would say lets revisit this in 10 years when Bitcoin has viable solutions for the unplugged and unbanked. Bitcoin is 10 years from having a mainstream usable solution to any of this IMHO.

Bitcoin isn't going to make viable solutions. We are going to need to. And we don't need 10 years. We just need the right set of features and implementation.

Do you realize that no Bitcoin mining client runs in the browser. How insane is that if you want mass adoption.

Do you remember I said I have experience creating million user markets in software and this was back when the internet was only 100 million users. I had 1% of the internet. My Coolpage.com went from 0 users at end of 1998 to 1 million users by 2001, only 2 - 3 years to capture 1% of the internet.

It is time for an expert to come in and do this correctly.

Quote from: DieJohnny on April 06, 2014, 05:32:50 PM

Quote from: AnonyMint on April 06, 2014, 09:25:37 AM

Also I don't assume we can't do transactions better than they can. We have to learn how to play to our decentralized advantage.

Maybe some day we'll "learn", but for now bitcoin is merely a speculative asset. Again I think any txn adoption curves and any talk about taking over global payment systems is not relevant to short term pricing.

True for Bitcoin. The adoption curve is set in stone already. Not necessarily true for an altcoin. It depends on features and implementation and quality of the community.

Quote from: DieJohnny on April 06, 2014, 05:32:50 PM

The ONLY thing driving short terms pricing is speculation. That is all. I think this will remain the case for at least 5 more years. The most you will see in value on speculation alone is 10k-50k because there will be other opportunities that represent a bigger return than Bitcoin after $10k.

Yup.

Quote from: DieJohnny on April 06, 2014, 05:32:50 PM

That only changes if bitcoin miraculously navigates the payment minefield and become a true alternative to the credit card, pay pal, and the coin or printed dollar.

I do think it would be miraculous for Bitcoin to evolve its txn ecosystem fast enough to compete with a world that is already responding. How can a distributed organization compete with decisive actions of orgnanized actors in the existing txn world? Distributed systems are great for functioning without central authority but they are terrible at creating killer-app type strategies. You basically have to hope existing systems collapse for Bitcoin to have any chance of ever taking over as a mainstream transaction system.

I was writing about potential altcoins.

Correct there shouldn't be a foundation, rather a Benevolent Dictator for Life, otherwise nothing gets done efficiently. Besides the Foundation gets captured by the corrupt as you see with the Bitcoin Foundation. It is the power vacuum of politics again. See that Iron Law of Political Economics.

If you see an altcoin designed by committee, run as far away as you can. Rather you want to see a very fair and reasonable leader who accepts all beneficial input and developers, yet makes correct and firm decisions and explains them. Let's listen to Linus Torvalds. I'd love to see more modularity and less monolithicity so there are more leaders each with narrower scope. In this decentralized crypto-currency case, that can be in terms of building APIs, etc, so the altcoins don't put everything in their protocols to avoid making it top-heavy gridlock and brittle.

Note that with open source, the Benevolent Dictator can be overruled by consensus thus he must work to maintain consensus. It is a position of honor and you only keep it if you deserve to.