Quote from: theCommittalist on Today at 08:03:13 AM

The next big predictable trigger looks to be the next 'halving' in 2024

bitcoins halving 2012 - november
price pre halving $6 price post halving $13

bitcoins halving 2016 - july
price pre halving $400 price post halving $960

bitcoins halving 2020 - november
price pre halving $5k price post halving $11k

halvings as the name suggests only cause a doubling of cost..

[quote author=larry_vw_1955
i think it's very logical to base bitcoin's price window on mining costs that does make sense, in a sense. but there has to be something more that gives bitcoin its market price like overall public demand. miners are probably a very small subset of all bitcoin users therefore, if bitcoin were only valuable to them, it wouldn't matter what their mining costs were, bitcoin would be worth very little in the real world.
[/quote]

thats where the dynamics play out

all bitcoiners are bitcoiners..
those that have courage and wealthy pockets and risk takers will invest in hardware and if they are the more savvi,organised. their acquisition price would be at the low end
those less courageous and just want get in and out quick become buyers and sellers where they take the premium speculative route for the convenience, ease, preference

yes there are the utility factors, such as compared to fiat(inflation) bitcoin(deflation) offers many things
you can set up off shore fund olding without a bank manager/lawyer
you can set up family trusts without bank manager/lawyer
you can move more then $1k value without having to ask a bank or being questioned
some see the fee's as being worth 6 minutes of minwage labour.some see fee's as being a days labour

lots of different factors and reasons people like bitcoin more or less

as for mining vs buying decisions its the same as
EG if you could buy land and plant an apple tree vs just going to a fruit market to buy an apple. which would you choose
EG if you could spend a couple weeks learning how to fish or going to market to buy a fish. which would you choose
convenience to just grab what you want when you want. or have to wait around for getting rewards

they all have reasons to want bitcoin and fight others to get it both in mining and ion the markets.

if only a couple hundred people were interested then it, and most were of african decent where their disposable(spare/investable) income was small.. then yes the value line and price would be like a crappy PoW altcoin of low value and low price..

the more people interested, the more they are willing to buy/acquire, the higher everything goes due to the competition.