to be honest, i see the highest probability for a surprise only in groups e, h and i.
there i can imagine that some nations could qualify for euro 2024 by finishing second in the table or would at least have the chance to qualify for germany in the play-offs as third.
Sure about Group E?
Poland and Czech Republic are almost certain to qualify, as the other three teams are not very strong contenders (Moldova, Faroe Islands and Albania). I am not forgetting the victory by Faroe Islands against Turkey. But we can't expect such a small nation to perform consistently against top UEFA teams (Faroe Islands is a country with total population of less than 50,000).
In Group H, Denmark and Finland may qualify. But Slovenia and Northern Ireland are also strong contenders. And finally for Group I, the battle for second position is going to be triangular, between Romania, Israel and Kosovo.