The cycling does not actually have that effects on the bitcoin price anymore lot of prediction about bitcoin that it could gets to what people don't even think of, yet today bitcoin couldn't go that much lower as they thought it should be. To me what I understood and taking note of is that there is always much variation in every year but the turning point doesn't really takes action between length of 4 years rather 2 to 3 years before the next bitcoin halving. So if you may ask me I will suggest you should take your time and do your analysis careful.
Regardless it will still fall into or between the 4 years range. Looking at this Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, it seems like there is one major ATH in that 4-year circle and maybe some other peaks too, and from this same chart, It does seem like Bitcoin is at the bottom or close because looking at the next image of trade view chart,
We are kind of trading along the long-time support of the last ATH and possibly if that happens to be broken like some other people believed Bitcoin will, then we are possibly looking at the
Red bottom line which is around $12k-$11k which is marked with the
brown line Bitcoin Rainbow Chart but do we think we could have that much deflection from within the chart down that level?
So, the big question is, can Bitcoin break the normal 4-year circle, or are we seeing another ATH before the next Halving, I think this might not happen until after the Halving
