Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 05:16:54 AM

There is a real albeit improbable risk that this could be more like 2011 than 2013.

That I can easily agree with. As one who bought after the great run up and then down, there was nothing left but upside, and it has transformed my life. (Never ascribe "unfortunate" with buying in 2011 as at the very worst, people would be sitting on 15x gains in 3 years after buying at the very top. You can only lose with Bitcoin if you sell.)

Quote from: aminorex on April 08, 2014, 04:06:37 AM

If ETPs on 1 mm float were to attract 1 tn in investor funds ( and there exist single investors each capable of investing about that much, such as Norway and PIMCO), which resulted in a market cap float of 10 tn, then each bitcoin would be trading for 10 mm usd.

The scenario is perhaps unlikely, but it is entirely conceivable and I know of no credible or principled way to rule it out. I could rationalize an additional factor of 10 if pressed -- after all, you can never have too much overkill.

If btc is replaced by another crypto, whatever value would have accrued in btc will just accrue in newcoin instead - even more , in as much as newcoin will only be able to displace btc by offering an order of magnitude improvement in utility.

This is like arguing whether God exists. Nobody under any circumstances can disprove it, so it is possible, and people who deny it risk getting burned. By having bitcoins, you risk getting incredibly wealthy.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 08, 2014, 03:43:44 AM

Fuck no! I sold almost all the BTC in my trading account to buy back lower. It's a hedge for me because the vast majority of my holdings are in cold storage. It's like buying life insurance. I'm making a bet I hope I lose. I will seriously consider selling other assets only if the price gets stupid low.

I think it is prudent to disclose that at these prices my business, cash, precious metals and RE holdings' combined value almost equals that of my bitcoins. I am in no way overextended, am totally debt-free, and will in no foreseeable case sell any bitcoins unless at 2,000 or more a piece. All my scheduled castle projects and upkeep is accounted for until 2015. So no need to talk to my book, even if coin goes to 200, the construction won't stop, I will just buy more bitcoins on the side.

Quote from: AnonyMint on April 07, 2014, 10:23:32 PM

What we have now is the adjustment to the reality that the adoption curve is really log-logistic as I have shown, thus rpietila's claim from his linear adoption projection chart that the price should be $900+ is likely incorrect.

My best way to convince you this is so, is to note that there is no way the universe would remove all competition to make it so easy for lazy investors to become so insanely rich. To become very wealthy requires active knowledge in developing and managing. The universe doesn't hand great sustained wealth to people who make one lucky decision.

Is your mouth bitter, brother? Have you no idea how difficult it is to hold the bitcoins? There are no lucky decisions. Buying is the rational decision, and selling (out) is the unlucky one.

Why should we listen to you in the first place? Despite your knowledge, you missed out the minimum 10x gains from last year. Aren't I more correct? It seems that no matter whether I am a bull or bear, now I am doing it wrong. Also the long-time trend is not disproven when the low end of the channel is hit. It just screams "buy!!". There is also a high end, meaning "sell!!".

Quote from: MahaRamana on April 08, 2014, 02:58:58 AM

I agree with the fact that we are probably not going to continue following the exponential trendline that Risto is using as a basis for his TA. The question is : how long will we have to remain under the trendline for the recognition that, although is was a good model for the first phase of bitcoin rise, it is not for the next phase that is starting.

Anyway one has to recognise that the past exponential trend line MUST be broken sooner or later. The questions is only if it is broken this year (which I believe), the year after that, or the next. What would be the price of BTC in April 2017 if we would stay on the trend line ? Wink

The exponential trendline remains valid until Bitcoin has reached 50% of its eventual adoption. In my understanding, the eventual adoption is more than 2x current adoption (potential of 500x-5000x), and therefore the trendline is current for at least this year, and maybe up to 2015, 2016, 2017.

I have never even published the amazingness of the trendline in how it showed the buy point after the 2011 crash. SlipperySlope's model with price data only from the exchange period could not capture it. Then the similar buy signal came after 2013 and also is flashing now. If we go up without ever seeing 400, will you finally believe me?

For Bitcoin to act as a universal savings medium, it will have to replace many current paper instruments like government debt, whose market cap is in 10s of trillions. By simple math, one bitcoin will cost $1M+. If the offchain services make money supply effectively flexible, then there is a possibility that it will have the same value as gold (300,000/BTC). And of course it can fail, and have a value of a few 1,000s or 10,000s.