Quote from: jakiman on April 09, 2014, 12:46:21 PM

Quote from: cayars on April 09, 2014, 12:06:42 PM

But even assuming straight low votes and we end up at only 4.7 years for sustain phase. WHO IS GOING TO MINE THIS? This coin will go from 550 (give or take) HVC per block to 5 HVC per block (give or take). That's over a hundred fold decrease in mining profit overnight. The coin commits suicide IMHO as soon as that happens.

Umm, you do realize that people aren't just going to sit around and keep selling at the low price when they know that it will suddenly become 50-100 times harder to mine? Price isn't going to stay the same as now and then BAM! instantly it becomes 5 coins per day instead of 500 coins per day of mining. That will NOT happen unless everyone is dumb. Early adopters won't just dump the coin at the current super low price. Also the new miners or buyers won't even be able to dream of buying it at the current low price. Also, it's not going to be an instantaneous overnight change like you say anyways to the people who are mining & trading.

You do realize there has to be a market right? You also realize there has to be a solid set of nodes to process the block chain correct? AHH but this is EXACTLY what will happen. During the limit phase we'll be getting around 550ish coins per block. But BEST CASE during sustain phase is 8 per block but more like 5 based on voting. So that is an overnight transition from 550ish to 5ish. Remember this IS NOT a gradual shift. Limit phase is 56 days. When it ends, it ends. One day you make 550 per block and the next day you make 5 per block. Most if not all miners will move to a new coin. The network will almost collapse in a day/week period. Hash rates will drop DRASTICALLY over a very quick period of time. That then causes security issues galore. A 51% attack among others could be pulled off by one miner (not even needing a pool) if they wanted.

Your premise is that somehow the value of the coin will "magically" become more valuable since the mining ability will be cut by 100 or more. Sorry, but this isn't going to happen. Anyone on the outside looking to invest is going to see the coin doesn't have a future by it's very design. Who or why would someone invest in this coin if it's already 90% mined in a few short months and had super high inflation and also had a 5% or so IPO "pre-mine" and another 1-2% premine on top of that?

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I'm not a hater, but don't see a bright future or any future for that matter for HVC at current without a core change to fix this major problem as I see it.

You see a major problem. But many others do not. So who is right? Still you?
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I want to be wrong. I want ANYONE to give a scenario that shows how HVC survives this transition from limit to sustain phase with it's current deployment schedule. Until someone can show/prove I'm wrong I'll have to assume I'm right.

You and everyone else of course can decide for yourself.

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There are about 100 coins out there which I do not see a bright future for.
Heck, I don't even know if Bitcoin or Litecoin has a bright future. I wish I knew...

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Yes, BTC is down and so are other alt coins. Really doesn't play into my thoughts much at all about this coins implementation. Really all that does is change the line of profitability a bit as I pointed out in the first "doom/gloom" message written yesterday where the 4 rig AMD is making less than 30 cents a day right now. But will that same person continue to pay $2.75 in electric costs per day to earn back 5 HVC per block?

There you go again. 4 card 280x rig currently mines about 200 Heavycoins right now. You are "assuming" that price will remain the same.
When the time gets closer to the sustain phase, you won't be able to buy 200 HVC for $2.75. Or do you know for sure that you will be?
Once you accept that you have no clue about the future, then you will understand that what you are saying is ALL speculation.

Yes but the value of what you mine is all that matters right now to most miners. If another coin is more profitable to mine they will mine it. If they see value in HVC long term they can dump the currently mined coin to purchase HVC. They would be dumb not to do that actually. But that assumes HVC does have a future and will gain in value.

I don't call it speculation at all. It's just math. Just run the numbers yourself through the different phases. Do best, average and worst case votes to arrive at the numbers. I'm assuming best case and it still doesn't work "for me".

So I'm not doing any speculation really. I'll give you the flip side and say you are the one who is speculating the coin will survive as it will need to nearly become 100 times more valuable very quickly to counter the sudden loss in mining profit or all hell breaks loose and the network collapses.

I really don't see how this is difficult to grasp.

Carlo