Quote from: franky1 on Today at 04:36:37 PM

Quote from: ImThour on Today at 12:18:28 PM

Bitcoin and The Support Trendline

1W Timeframe

someone showing a chart. where they just draw a line.. is not evidence

you have to use real world metrics to have evidence. not a simple MSpaint doodle line

the cheapest way to acquire coin in any 6 month*ⁱ period is always the cheapest mining cost on the planet

calculate the 6mon-2year*ⁱ mining cost. where they have 6mon-2year*ⁱ contracts on electric so are mining constantly for that length. meaning averaging out the hashrate chart by that length too to get the average cost of low cost mining.. this also means calculate the hardware costs of current gen EFFICIENT asic needed to perform network hashrate. where you set them at a 2 year run-til-dead lifecycle

then plot out the costs per period and then you will see a 'step up' of a "bottom" that sits below the market.

yep use data outside the market. using stats found in real world data and cost. .. not just a silly mspaint line drawn on a chart

example math
if an asic was $4k for 140exa 3kwh
if network was 220exa year average(earlier in year)
=1,571,428.571 asics
   =$6,285,714,286 2 year hardware life cost
   =$1,571,428,571 6 month* hardware cost

if electric is base $0.04/kw =$0.12/asic per hour
=$188,571.4286 per hour electric
   =$823,680,000 per 6 month*

coins per block=6.25=164062.5 per 6 month*

=$1,571,428,571+$823,680,000 cost
/164062.5 coins = $14,598.76 cost per coin**
...
emphasis and repeating:
"the cheapest way to acquire coin in any 6 month period is always the cheapest mining cost on the planet"

no one on planet wants to sell below the lowest REAL COST of real world bills on the planet

the public speculative market then has a price above this line. which is speculative due to peoples higher costs and sentiments of their desires(the premium above the value)

* efficient miners do not play to whims of daily hashrate or price changes. they have contracts of 6 months+ so mine constantly.
**miners look at their contract length cost. and the coins acquired in same time scale then calculate individual coin cost from that
ⁱ you can also do it the micro level of just one asic and its daily burn cost and its daily reward slice of sat amount and multiply it to a btc. which again also comes to a near on $15k efficient mining cost