Quote from: philipma1957 on December 21, 2022, 10:34:36 PM

As I have said in multiple posts the fed has found a way to bail out all the USA long term care polices.

How simple raise rates.

If you realize just how much the long term care companies were in the hook back in Jan 2022

and how much they recovered in one year it is pretty obvious that they will continue to boost bond yields which are pretty much the only thing long time care policies invest in.

my brother in law has dementia. he has a policy with genworth a major long term care policy company.

they were rated to have a 45% shot of going bankrupt december 2021
they are now rate to have a 32% shot of going bankrupt december 2022.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5430871.msg61478856#msg61478856

read this post and you can see how poorly genworth did with low bond interest the 2019 to 2021 time frame

read how they did 2021 to 2022 with high bond rates.

hint they went from 99 billion to 114 billion

there are 14 companies like them.

all were next to dead december 2021.

all are coming back due to the feds actions in 2022.

I see at least two more hikes to continue to help the ltc industry.

maybe four hikes.

If you check the top long term care company ratings and compare dec 2021 to 2022 you can see this was a huge bailout for them.

btw. these rates are a huge bailout for federal workers starting jan 2023 and social security payouts.

they will likely not stop.

keep checking on genworth at this website

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/GNW/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

I suspect that rates will rise and improve their bottomline for as much as June 2023 .

Keep in mind there are about 14 companies that are like genworth and everyone of them is getting this help

so maybe april but likely june we flip.

I agree that sometimes between April to June 2023 Feds will flip. Overall, 2022 looks like 2018 and if you check 2019, btc started to rise at the end of Q1 but mostly went up in Q2.

One thing though... if Feds flip in April, shouldn't the market react earlier like 2-3 months before that due to insider information, so we will see btc go up sometimes in February - April? (2-3 months before the flip in April - June)? What do you think?