Quote from: Antisthenes on December 22, 2022, 05:39:32 PM

He is way smarter than I will ever be

That's true. But you are not really saying much.

Quote from: philipma1957 on December 22, 2022, 07:19:15 PM

Quote from: Richy_T on December 22, 2022, 06:02:34 PM

Government passes a hugely inflationary spending bill and we're heading down? Logic.

people want high fed rates for their bonds.

If you have $$$ and get a five year bond at 3.71% they are betting rates go up and they will stagger up.

Ie buy a five year today at 3.71
buy a 5 year in six weeks at 4.20
buy a 5 year in 12 weeks at 4.71
buy a 5 year in 18 weeks at 5.21

then hope for pivot.

you are loaded up for next 5 years with rates between 3.71 and 5.21

and the USD is the best dollar token there is.

This does not attract a guy without $$$

but if you have $$$ it looks like a good play.

Buying govt bonds is not as great of a play as you are making it out to be.. especially if you were to understand bitcoin... In other words, just don't over do it with those govt bonds... sure if you are 65 years old, you can play around with that nonsense a bit more because your likely timeline is shorter.. but if you have a 4-10 year plus timeline, be careful NOT to overallocate in that kind of stuff.. maybe no more than 20% of your starting out investment portfolio at the most, and careful about being too whimpy on bitcoin too... bitcoin should be 1% to 25% for those starting out in investing, and of course, tailoring to your personal circumstances is important.. on the lower end of the range if you are a scaredy cat in regards to bitcoin, and up to 25% if you are more bullish on it.. and then go from there.. let's see how it goes... try to do your own thinking too (not talking about you specifically Philip.. but just generally, because we're on a public thread).

Quote from: newbtc101 on Today at 01:30:13 AM

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 12:15:18 AM

[edited out]

If 2023 repeats 2019 then Q1 - Q2 promises btc going up. If F Zulauf is right and the Feds will pivot in Q2, shouldn't the market react 2-3 months before that due to "insider" info, so we will see btc go up sometimes in February?

You lost me ... Why then the end of Q1 would be a perfect time to buy rather than now?

Because Biodom is "whimpy" don't you not know nuttin?

Quote from: newbtc101 on Today at 01:30:13 AM

Also isn't Q2 2023 will be the point when Mt Gox will (likely?) release that big chunk of btc...

Surely 2023 will be interesting for btc

Yep.. will be interesting.

Is the bottom in or not? We might not know if the bottom is in until end of 1st quarter or even well into the 2nd quarter of 2023..

I would be worried about concluding the bottom is in while BTC prices are still under the 200-week moving average (which is currently $24k).. and I may well require more than that on a personal level.. even though just getting back to the 200-week moving average or getting above it might cause bullish sentiments.