Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 04:56:10 AM

Well I am not the dullest tool in the shed or the sharpest.

As you can see there is a website devoted to clocking the possibilities of going bankrupt for long term care companies.

I never would have thought to apply it to clock fed rates.

I found it last year when my brother in law got sick.

I used it because I was checking on genworth to figure out if my brother-in-law would be able to keep collecting his long term care insurance.

As I kept checking it the bankruptcy dropped from 45% to 32% and the company became more solvent. In time with the fed rate increases.

Did my research an realized close to three trillion in value is held by long term care companies in usa.

In the last year the industry has recovered 15% in value. about 450 billion in value gained.

I am sure others check that website to figure out the health of insurance companies like genworth.

The are smart and skilled at guessing the when companies become safer or safe from going bankrupt.

From what I can see these companies could use till June and keep loading up better bonds.

I lean to The June date not the April date for the fed to pivot.

So I believe rally could start in April-May time frame as a response to guessing pivot starts in June.

Lots of outside factors can make all of that wrong.
ie Ukraine 🇺🇦 vs Russia 🇷🇺 has a sudden turn.

Ukraine wins Putin dies Russia gives all of Ukraine back = monster rally.
Ukraine loses Putin becomes more powerful = big ass slump
Ukraine and Russia drags on for a few more years sideways sideways sideways.

Thank you for your thoughtful response and I am sorry to hear about your brother.

There maybe a fourth scenario concerning Russia vs Ukraine, I have heard rumors that Ukraine may get a new leadership and peace negotiations will resume meaning there will be a (hopefully) win-win situation(or call it loose-loose) but the ultimate outcome would be to end the conflict sometimes in 2023. Meaning a possible rally for bitcoin.

Assuming that 2023 will look like 2019 when Q2 had nearly 160% rise in btc price, your prediction that btc will start to rise sometimes in April does make sense. However, sometimes in June Mt. Gox will likely release some btc as well so that April - May rally could be short and will likely resume in Q4.

Just my 2 cents